1.
Agree 100%.
Did not bet the farm for financial risk/rewards reasons.
2.
Old auto has proven they are clueless.
So did IBM.
To did Tandy, Wang, commodore, et al.
3.
Like I said, game over is 3 years.
The exact same trend happened in PV, that I was in, 6 years ago.
Game is over, PV won.
60%, today, of all new power is PV (wind).
Globally.
Your reservations are totally true, and prudent, and correct, imho, in a linear-scaling business-as-usual world.
But, today, financial markets fuel any expansion at an exponential pace.
Examples, in chronological order.
Intel, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Uber, Tesla.
An exponential improvement in batteries, as now, 9% y/y (last 10-15 years), is == 100% every 5 years.
This the the very low end, that approx 90% of all technology-analysers know has almost always been surpassed, if $$ is available.
Today, 1 billion $$/yr or more is spent on (better-lion-type) battery research.
Tesla is the biggest user and researcher of this in the world, and has more experience in use than any company on earth, for over 6 years (doing it 12 years, but big for 5-6).
Does not mean someone else may not find a better battery.
Their first, and likely only, customer will be Tesla, because of $$$.
BYD is nr 2.
Third place is maybe 50% of the size, Nissan Leaf, ie Tesla and BYD are 5 times more important, with 100x more growth plans in place, and credible demonstrated execution over many years.
Leaf has sold 200.000+ x (==) 24 kW = 4.8 GW, lifetime.
Tesla, lifetime, approx 100k, at 80 kW, = 8 GW.
Tesla, 80-100k, 80 kW avg. == 9 GW this year.
Ie Tesla will sell 200% more GWh this year than Nissan has done in 6 years (Tesla lifetime total == 270% more).
That is why looking at exponential numbers/trends is critical.
BYD is doing a 5 GWh factory this year, and I think another next year.
1.
I would not bet the family farm on Tesla at this point
2.
... and would not count out the other auto makers as "understanding" this market and not showing their hands yet.
I'm of the "old" auto world. A market that over years sucks more money from the consumer over a lifetime than most any other.
Given enough time my opinion is that EVs will be the standard.
3.
This may be a very long time down the road and it looks now to be generations if not more.