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Ongoing unrest in Russia

From what tid bits I've gathered about an all out nuke exchange between Russia and the US. US claims that we can see every launch the Russians make 24hr/seven days. We can determine what type. So a first strike by the Russians would be met with a response before the missels hit. A single missel would actually stand a better chance of getting by than a massive strike not that it would be any more successful but may appear to be accidental. If the Russians don't have that ability now they will sooner or later. So as crazy as Putin is all this talk about a nuke war is typical Russian blowhard bull.

Any confrontation with NATO would probably go like this , a month of panning and logistics and a few weeks of warfare and the mighty Russian Bear would look like an abandoned cub and if Putin doesn't believe that then he really is crazy.

So any nation that wants to join the nuke club also gets a complmentary ticket to our watch list. It doesn't make them safer.They would be better off spending their money on their economy. No way to get around MAD.

No matter who says what about the Ukraine war in my opinion it is all on delusional Putin and a hand full of his yes men / cronies . I don't believe that the majority of Russian citizens ever wanted a war with Ukraine but unless they get some back bone this shit won't stop until Putin dies.
 
I pretty much agree with your assessment, ratbldr, but would note that Putin has been making noises about using so-called tactical nukes - with the notion that NATO and the US would be so scared of the Putin, they wouldn't respond.

Far as I can tell, many here are doing a pretty good job of giving him a green light. Also as far as I can tell, Putin will take whatever he thinks he can get.
 
I don't believe that the majority of Russian citizens ever wanted a war with Ukraine but unless they get some back bone this shit won't stop until Putin dies.
Wanted war? Perhaps not, though they were being conditioned against Ukraine for some time.
Support it now, after it began? From what I hear there is a majority. Perhaps not an overwhelming one, but more than those who oppose.
 
Interesting to see how Putin handles the Navalny funeral .....seems dozens of Western diplomats will be attending ,and the media ............he may go full Stalin and arrest everyone there ......or kidnap the body and dispose of it..
 
Cut to the chase, many countries have helped Ukraine in this war
Our USA with continued rhetoric and sanitations has made us the focal point of a fellow super power Russia to point out numerous times that nuclear war is on the table.
It is like being in a tough Detroit bar and making smart mouth to the tough guy, when that guy stands up you could be in deep do do.

Conversation between four high-ranking German officials about blowing up the Crimeanridge..more dumb rhetoric to back Russia in a corner.
 
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Pesticides, GMO crops, chemical soaps, high fructose corn syrup, MRNA prophylaxis, a pill for every aliment, "reproductive healthcare", "gender affirming care", medically assisted suicide, war, fentanyl...

O.T. the most annoying thing about this forum software is that it only quotes the last post in a conversation, as opposed to the old "thread" format. I miss being able to use BBcode and format my posts how I want them.

[tangent]

I know that we are not on the same level of Conspiracy Theory's by any stretch, but could I address one point here:

GMO crops.

As I understand it, GMO is just an in-lab process that speeds up the same act that takes place in "hybriding".

And in a few months I can walk out in the field here and show you the same exact process that happens naturally. You may want to discount anything that comes from Darwin, but evolution is a real thing - at least within a species...

I can show you Giant Ragweed, Mares Tail, Thistles, and whatnot that have found their way to being "Round-up Ready" all by themselves. These have been known as SuperWeeds for .. prolly 20 years by now.

Have you ever tried growing row crops w/o herbicides? I have. Spoiler alert - it doesn't end well to say the least. If this was universally employed, the cost of food would ... trippple? as well as cause mass starvation worldwide.

Not saying that there aren't some things on this planet that would be nice if we could eventually edit, but in the short term - the cure can be worse than the disease.

Unrelated, but I just happen to have taken this pic a few weeks back:

DSCN3452.JPG

[/tangent]


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
 
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US forces have been training for a russian invasion of Europe since 1945. This is nothing new. The Russians have been practicing invading european countries by invading Hungary, Chechnya, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The idea that NOW, there is a real danger of nuclear war because many countries are aiding Ukraine?
I am dubious.
Putin will say anything, but he would lose even a conventional war with NATO, and really lose a nuclear one.

Russia is losing planes, radars, and missile capacity at a huge rate- out of maybe 9 AWACS style planes (A50 in russia) they have lost two of them in the last couple of months. And thats assuming 9 actually work. They are losing bombers every week. 1/3 of their air force (on paper) has been lost. But just the wear and tear of daily missions means that the remaining 2/3 is nowhere near all flight ready and operational. US fighters need about 20 hours of maintenance for every flight hour, russian jets are, if anything, worse. No way they are at official on the books strength.
They have lost thousands of tanks, mostly the newest ones (and most "new" russian tanks are 80s or older). Their ability to do much against NATO or the US is declining rapidly. Ukraine is wearing them out, finding their weak spots, and doing it at a bargain basement rate, destroying 5 million dollar tanks every week with 2000 dollar drones.
The thing Russia will really have to worry about it all those other "Soviet Socialist Republics" wanting independence too. The russian casualties have been disproportionately the non-russian soldiers- 65% of the "russian" army is from parts that are not "russia", including indigenous tribes from Siberia, lots of muslims from the Caucasus region, and lots from the areas near China. These people are being killed in huge numbers, and are usually just in the army because the regions are so poor.
There have been a long series of rebellions against moscow within russia, and no reason for there not to be more in the future.

Supporting Ukraine saves the US military hundreds of billions of dollars over fighting them ourselves. Its an incredible bargain. Probably half of the yearly 1 trillion US defense budget is dedicated to being prepared to fight Russia and/or China. The small amount we have spent on sending otherwise obsolete stuff to Ukraine is so much cheaper than just being ready to fight them costs.

Remember, about 90% of the money "sent" to Ukraine never leaves the USA- its the paper value of the ancient weapons we are sending them, and the money is actually being spent buying shiny new ones from US arms manufacturers. Much of this stuff would have been scrapped- which costs money. We have thousands of 90s or older armored vehicles, missiles and rockets, all of which are just sitting there, past their pull dates.
 
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I like your post Ries, and agree with most of it, but as I live within an hour from the Lima Tank Plant here in Ohio, I am of the understanding that the tanks that they are currently building - are in fact going to The Ukraine. I actually ass_u_med differently, but it seems that is not the case.


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
 
I like your post Ries, and agree with most of it, but as I live within an hour from the Lima Tank Plant here in Ohio, I am of the understanding that the tanks that they are currently building - are in fact going to The Ukraine. I actually ass_u_med differently, but it seems that is not the case.


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
I agree with what Reis said about the USA sending old equipment to ukraine at full retail price and buying new ones of whatever to replace those that went to ukraine. The exception to that might be your tanks. USA wont give new abrams to ukraine since they have too many top secret things about them they dont want ruskies to learn about.... SO the answer to that is build new tanks without all the good stuff on them so when Russia gets their hands on them there are no secrets lost...
There are plenty of good abrams tanks and if they wanted to it would be easy to load up some planes with them and be in ukraine tomorrow, the secret sauce is what kept that from happening.
 
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US forces have been training for a russian invasion of Europe since 1945. This is nothing new. The Russians have been practicing invading european countries by invading Hungary, Chechnya, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The idea that NOW, there is a real danger of nuclear war because many countries are aiding Ukraine?
I am dubious.
Putin will say anything, but he would lose even a conventional war with NATO, and really lose a nuclear one.

Russia is losing planes, radars, and missile capacity at a huge rate- out of maybe 9 AWACS style planes (A50 in russia) they have lost two of them in the last couple of months. And thats assuming 9 actually work. They are losing bombers every week. 1/3 of their air force (on paper) has been lost. But just the wear and tear of daily missions means that the remaining 2/3 is nowhere near all flight ready and operational. US fighters need about 20 hours of maintenance for every flight hour, russian jets are, if anything, worse. No way they are at official on the books strength.
They have lost thousands of tanks, mostly the newest ones (and most "new" russian tanks are 80s or older). Their ability to do much against NATO or the US is declining rapidly. Ukraine is wearing them out, finding their weak spots, and doing it at a bargain basement rate, destroying 5 million dollar tanks every week with 2000 dollar drones.
The thing Russia will really have to worry about it all those other "Soviet Socialist Republics" wanting independence too. The russian casualties have been disproportionately the non-russian soldiers- 65% of the "russian" army is from parts that are not "russia", including indigenous tribes from Siberia, lots of muslims from the Caucasus region, and lots from the areas near China. These people are being killed in huge numbers, and are usually just in the army because the regions are so poor.
There have been a long series of rebellions against moscow within russia, and no reason for there not to be more in the future.

Supporting Ukraine saves the US military hundreds of billions of dollars over fighting them ourselves. Its an incredible bargain. Probably half of the yearly 1 trillion US defense budget is dedicated to being prepared to fight Russia and/or China. The small amount we have spent on sending otherwise obsolete stuff to Ukraine is so much cheaper than just being ready to fight them costs.

Remember, about 90% of the money "sent" to Ukraine never leaves the USA- its the paper value of the ancient weapons we are sending them, and the money is actually being spent buying shiny new ones from US arms manufacturers. Much of this stuff would have been scrapped- which costs money. We have thousands of 90s or older armored vehicles, missiles and rockets, all of which are just sitting there, past their pull dates.
So what do your deep intel sources tell you what happens when the U.S. and it's European allies run out of obsolete junk to ship to Ukraine?***
Will our NATO/EU allies hang tough for the duration or will the coalition fracture?
The threat of nuclear war seems to provoke much debate but there does not seem to be much speculation what might happen if someone bad actor sprung a Super-Dooper version of Covid on major cities and industrial/tech regions.
Something to consider I guess.

***In Jan 2021 lead times were based in years if not decades to bring equipment levels up to requirments. Of course the article many have been to support #46 DOD budget requests.
Would be interesting to see the issue revisited now, 3 years later in 2024.
 
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I like your post Ries, and agree with most of it, but as I live within an hour from the Lima Tank Plant here in Ohio, I am of the understanding that the tanks that they are currently building - are in fact going to The Ukraine. I actually ass_u_med differently, but it seems that is not the case.


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
thats interesting- I wonder what model they are building.
I have read we sent them 31 Abrams M1s, but not brand new ones. Mostly we have sent them Older Bradleys and some Strykers, and M113s.
The newest M113s are from 2007, but most are much older than that. We have sent them around 300 of them.
We have over 4000 Strykers, I dont think any are newer than about 2013, but some have been rebuilt since then. Not sure the vintage of the 200 or so we have sent to Ukraine.
Also lots of Humvees, 1700 or so. We rebuild Humvees in Red River, but I dont think they have been in regular production for a while- probably 10 years or so.

Maybe Lima is refurbishing armor?

 
Apparently we don't have all our eggs in one basket?

<2 hours from me is the AMG plant in Mishawauka that builds Hummers.
Have watched full train loads of them [in tan] go through near here headed east, but I haven't seen them in a few years as you say. Maybe not 10 yrs, but ...


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
 
So what do your deep intel sources tell you what happens when the U.S. and it's European allies run out of obsolete junk to ship to Ukraine?***
Will our NATO/EU allies hang tough for the duration or will the coalition fracture?
The threat of nuclear war seems to provoke much debate but there does not seem to be much speculation what might happen if someone bad actor sprung a Super-Dooper version of Covid on major cities and industrial/tech regions.
Something to consider I guess.

***In Jan 2021 lead times were based in years if not decades to bring equipment levels up to requirments. Of course the article many have been to support #46 DOD budget requests.
Would be interesting to see the issue revisited now, 3 years later in 2024.
obviously "my sources" ie government press releases and all the news organisations, tell me that we will be expanding production of new weapons, and some of those, including artillery shells, missiles, and eventually armor, aircraft, and artillery, will be then sent.

For instance, the Netherlands just signed a 10 year treaty pledging to manufacture and supply Ukraine.

Denmark just pledged to supply Ukraine with arms, training, and support, along with 10 billion or so of weapons. https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu...-and-denmark-sign-10-year-security-agreement/

Sweden is pledging to continue sending funding and weapons, too.

the new (right wing) president of Finland says if they dont support Ukraine, europe will cease to exist.

France just signed a new agreement, pledging another 3 billion- https://www.france24.com/en/france/...s-to-sign-bilateral-security-deal-with-macron

Germany just signed an agreement pledging money and weapons.

greece is sending a batch of weapons including armor, HLMRs, air defense systems, and more, in exchange for the US agreeing to sell them newer weapons.

Most other Nato countries are similar. Most are sending older weapons, but many are sending new production, especially of ammo, as they gear up.
None of this is some secret whispered in my ear- its all out there, right on Google, or even duck duck ducker.
 
Apparently we don't have all our eggs in one basket?

<2 hours from me is the AMG plant in Mishawauka that builds Hummers.
Have watched full train loads of them [in tan] go through near here headed east, but I haven't seen them in a few years as you say. Maybe not 10 yrs, but ...


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
you are right- they let a contract in 2015 for 7500, so a few are still being made. I believe we have somewhere around 50,000 of em. And we sent around 1700 so far to Ukraine. I really doubt they got the new ones, though.
Even if we are sending them new Humvees, or those 31 Abrams were hot off the line at Lima, the money still went to US workers and suppliers, not to Ukraine itself.
 
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obviously "my sources" ie government press releases and all the news organisations, tell me that we will be expanding production of new weapons, and some of those, including artillery shells, missiles, and eventually armor, aircraft, and artillery, will be then sent.

For instance, the Netherlands just signed a 10 year treaty pledging to manufacture and supply Ukraine.

Denmark just pledged to supply Ukraine with arms, training, and support, along with 10 billion or so of weapons. https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu...-and-denmark-sign-10-year-security-agreement/

Sweden is pledging to continue sending funding and weapons, too.

the new (right wing) president of Finland says if they dont support Ukraine, europe will cease to exist.

France just signed a new agreement, pledging another 3 billion- https://www.france24.com/en/france/...s-to-sign-bilateral-security-deal-with-macron

Germany just signed an agreement pledging money and weapons.

greece is sending a batch of weapons including armor, HLMRs, air defense systems, and more, in exchange for the US agreeing to sell them newer weapons.

Most other Nato countries are similar. Most are sending older weapons, but many are sending new production, especially of ammo, as they gear up.
None of this is some secret whispered in my ear- its all out there, right on Google, or even duck duck ducker.
No doubt Ukraine will be awash in military equipment and very handily attrit the Russia and force their capitulation.
Any thoughts on who will supply Ukraine with the troops to utilize all that military hardware NATO is sending?
 
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Being the winner or the looser of a big war, one or the other would not be much fun.
Q: (who will supply Ukraine with the troops) nobody or it will become the big war.
Winner or looser, both will not be fun.

Good we won..
Hello, is anyone out there? This is michiganbuck from Detroit, Hello is anyone out there?
I know, this could not happen because I would be toast.
I might be safe at fish camp, Ontario but for lack of ice we wont be going...darn.
 
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No doubt Ukraine will be awash in military equipment and very handily attrit the Russia and force their capitulation.
Any thoughts on who will supply Ukraine with the troops to utilize all that military hardware NATO is sending?
the population of Ukraine is 40 million or so. Current miltary strength is about 400,000. A lot of whom are volunteers.
So I guess the answer to your question would be the other 99% of the population of Ukraine?
A lot of women are in the military there, and they accept volunteers up to the age of 60, I believe.
They are pretty patriotic, its their country which is being invaded.
 
"It is like being in a tough Detroit bar and making smart mouth to the tough guy,..."

Issue at hand is: Tough guy is Ukraine, smart mouth jerk is putin.
 
the population of Ukraine is 40 million or so. Current miltary strength is about 400,000. A lot of whom are volunteers.
So I guess the answer to your question would be the other 99% of the population of Ukraine?
A lot of women are in the military there, and they accept volunteers up to the age of 60, I believe.
They are pretty patriotic, its their country which is being invaded.
You may want to use your google-foo...try 'effect of war on ukraine demographics'
No one would challenge the patriotism of the people of Ukraine but as is pointed out quite often on PM....science and numbers are what count, and numbers paint a picture of "demographic catastrophe".
 








 
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