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Ongoing unrest in Russia

"It is like being in a tough Detroit bar and making smart mouth to the tough guy,..."

Issue at hand is: Tough guy is Ukraine, smart mouth jerk is putin.
Is it possible for the smart mouth jerk to also be a tough guy?
Could be both based on long ago observations in a few "blind pigs" around Detroit/Toledo.
 
You may want to use your google-foo...try 'effect of war on ukraine demographics'
No one would challenge the patriotism of the people of Ukraine but as is pointed out quite often on PM....science and numbers are what count, and numbers paint a picture of "demographic catastrophe".
The total amount of US military personell from 1939 to 1945, who, I would say, won WW2, was a bit less than 10% of the population of the USA at that time.
Are you saying that Ukraine could not over the course of a 3 or 4 year war (and yes, most people who study these things think it will take that long) cannot raise a military of similar percentages?
the lowest estimate is that the in country Ukrainian population is 35 million, that I can find. So if they double their army, to 800,000 they are still at what- 3% of the population? They dont have enough armor, artillery, or ammo to support a 3 million man army anyway. Drones are doing most of the work.
The casualty rates of Ukraine are running about 31,000 so far, with most estimates of russian deaths at about 10 times that.
2 years, 31,000 dead. Not anybody's idea of a good thing, but sustainable with a population of 35 million.
 
The total amount of US military personell from 1939 to 1945, who, I would say, won WW2, was a bit less than 10% of the population of the USA at that time.
Are you saying that Ukraine could not over the course of a 3 or 4 year war (and yes, most people who study these things think it will take that long) cannot raise a military of similar percentages?
the lowest estimate is that the in country Ukrainian population is 35 million, that I can find. So if they double their army, to 800,000 they are still at what- 3% of the population? They dont have enough armor, artillery, or ammo to support a 3 million man army anyway. Drones are doing most of the work.
The casualty rates of Ukraine are running about 31,000 so far, with most estimates of russian deaths at about 10 times that.
2 years, 31,000 dead. Not anybody's idea of a good thing, but sustainable with a population of 35 million.
Don't know how a comparison of the 1945 population of the United States can be used for a comparison. But for discussion purposes during WW2 those in uniform versus those producing war material for U.S. forces along with supplying allies spread all over the world became a real concern and was addressed by Gen. George Marshall by limiting total number of combat divisions and likely entered into the decision to use the atomic bomb on Japan.
You somehow hang your hat on a percentage of the total population which makes little sense if you take age and gender into account not to mention ability to carry out the requirement of a combat soldier. I guess ultimately some might revisit WW2 German desperation sending youth under 16 to the front. Or not.
Best I can tell the total casualties for either side are a bit speculative and often vary greatly depending which side issues the numbers.
One thing for sure, there has been massive loss of life and destruction with no end in sight and for some reason jingoist promotion of the current war seems to be sweeping the blue state faithful.
 
Don't know how a comparison of the 1945 population of the United States can be used for a comparison. But for discussion purposes during WW2 those in uniform versus those producing war material for U.S. forces along with supplying allies spread all over the world became a real concern and was addressed by Gen. George Marshall by limiting total number of combat divisions and likely entered into the decision to use the atomic bomb on Japan.
You somehow hang your hat on a percentage of the total population which makes little sense if you take age and gender into account not to mention ability to carry out the requirement of a combat soldier. I guess ultimately some might revisit WW2 German desperation sending youth under 16 to the front. Or not.
Best I can tell the total casualties for either side are a bit speculative and often vary greatly depending which side issues the numbers.
One thing for sure, there has been massive loss of life and destruction with no end in sight and for some reason jingoist promotion of the current war seems to be sweeping the blue state faithful.
The casualty figures are agreed upon by a wide range of sources- roughly 10 russians for every 1 ukrainian.

The percentage of a countries population that is fully mobilized to create the largest army the US has ever seen seems a pretty good yardstick to me of what the maximum the Ukrainians could reasonably field - as in, if we could field 10% of the population, and they currently have 1% in arms, then it seems pretty easy to believe they could have 3%.

You are right that age and gender are in the Ukranians favor- they have 22% female troops right now, (as compared with US 16%) many women are front line, more than we have had, and its not uncommon at all to see 40 to 55 year old Ukrainians on the front lines- the average age is 43- while the average age of a US soldier in WW2 was 26, and many were much younger.
So they have drawn on a broader base of their population already.
The russians are doing human wave charges against machine guns.
The Ukrainians are running drones, Himars, artillery, snipers, and other tactics to make up for fewer soldiers and more regard for the lives of them.

Another reason the US military leadership is all in on supporting Ukraine is that they are inventing the next generation of warfare, and it doesnt involve only 19 year old boys shooting small arms. Our military is observing and hopefully learning from this- as it is the future, without a doubt.
 
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The casualty figures are agreed upon by a wide range of sources- roughly 10 russians for every 1 ukrainian.

The percentage of a countries population that is fully mobilized to create the largest army the US has ever seen seems a pretty good yardstick to me of what the maximum the Ukrainians could reasonably field - as in, if we could field 10% of the population, and they currently have 1% in arms, then it seems pretty easy to believe they could have 3%.

You are right that age and gender are in the Ukranians favor- they have 10% female troops right now, many front line, more than we ever did, and its not uncommon at all to see 40 to 55 year old Ukrainians on the front lines- the average age is 43- while the average age of a US soldier in WW2 was 26, and many were much younger.
So they have drawn on a broader base of their population already.
The russians are doing human wave charges against machine guns.
The Ukrainians are running drones, Himars, artillery, snipers, and other tactics to make up for fewer soldiers and more regard for the lives of them.

Another reason the US military leadership is all in on supporting Ukraine is that they are inventing the next generation of warfare, and it doesnt involve only 19 year old boys shooting small arms. Our military is observing and hopefully learning from this- as it is the future, without a doubt.
Actually I don't feel demographics favor Ukraine's war effort.
I guess we will have to wait and see how it all turns out.
 
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The casualty figures are agreed upon by a wide range of sources- roughly 10 russians for every 1 ukrainian.

The percentage of a countries population that is fully mobilized to create the largest army the US has ever seen seems a pretty good yardstick to me of what the maximum the Ukrainians could reasonably field - as in, if we could field 10% of the population, and they currently have 1% in arms, then it seems pretty easy to believe they could have 3%.

You are right that age and gender are in the Ukranians favor- they have 22% female troops right now, (as compared with US 16%) many women are front line, more than we have had, and its not uncommon at all to see 40 to 55 year old Ukrainians on the front lines- the average age is 43- while the average age of a US soldier in WW2 was 26, and many were much younger.
So they have drawn on a broader base of their population already.
The russians are doing human wave charges against machine guns.
The Ukrainians are running drones, Himars, artillery, snipers, and other tactics to make up for fewer soldiers and more regard for the lives of them.

Another reason the US military leadership is all in on supporting Ukraine is that they are inventing the next generation of warfare, and it doesnt involve only 19 year old boys shooting small arms. Our military is observing and hopefully learning from this- as it is the future, without a doubt.


One big difference is that a large % of the folks back home in the 40's were in support of the war. (MFG)
This is something that the Ukraine does not include, so actually more can be actively engaged in the fight.

Those of us in the western hemisphere are used to military personnel to be young, but if that war was on OUR soil, then our numbers would undoubtedly look no different than theirs. No diff than Sir W Churchill's public that was ready to fight on the beaches, the landing grounds (LZ's?), the fields, or even the streets.


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
 
obviously "my sources" ie government press releases and all the news organisations, tell me that we will be expanding production of new weapons, and some of those, including artillery shells, missiles, and eventually armor, aircraft, and artillery, will be then sent.

For instance, the Netherlands just signed a 10 year treaty pledging to manufacture and supply Ukraine.

Denmark just pledged to supply Ukraine with arms, training, and support, along with 10 billion or so of weapons. https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu...-and-denmark-sign-10-year-security-agreement/

Sweden is pledging to continue sending funding and weapons, too.

the new (right wing) president of Finland says if they dont support Ukraine, europe will cease to exist.

France just signed a new agreement, pledging another 3 billion- https://www.france24.com/en/france/...s-to-sign-bilateral-security-deal-with-macron

Germany just signed an agreement pledging money and weapons.

greece is sending a batch of weapons including armor, HLMRs, air defense systems, and more, in exchange for the US agreeing to sell them newer weapons.

Most other Nato countries are similar. Most are sending older weapons, but many are sending new production, especially of ammo, as they gear up.
None of this is some secret whispered in my ear- its all out there, right on Google, or even duck duck ducker.
I like what the Finns said about the long range missels they are sending them. They are encouraging them to use them to strike Russian infastructure unlike the US. They have an old bone to pick over with them so anything they can do for the Ukrainians against the Russians is a good thing.
 
One big difference is that a large % of the folks back home in the 40's were in support of the war. (MFG)
This is something that the Ukraine does not include, so actually more can be actively engaged in the fight.

Those of us in the western hemisphere are used to military personnel to be young, but if that war was on OUR soil, then our numbers would undoubtedly look no different than theirs. No diff than Sir W Churchill's public that was ready to fight on the beaches, the landing grounds (LZ's?), the fields, or even the streets.


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I am Ox and I approve this here post!
Ukraine is actually a huge manufacturing center. The steel mill the russians destroyed in Maripul was the largest steel mill in Europe, east or west. The airfield the russians tried, and failed, to occupy in Kyiv in the first couple of days is called Antonov, which is the center of an airplane manufacturing company that built over 22,000 airplanes including some of the Soviets most important cargo and military planes. Before the war they were, as a country, the 11th largest arms exporter in the world.
Its a very industrial country, and the factories have continued to make more and more armaments beyond what they get from the US and Nato countries.
They have small arms factories, making things like Snipex rifles, Malyuk assault rifles, an AR15 variant that fires soviet ammo, and more.
They are currently making their own armored vehicles, 155mm artillery, air and land launched missiles, seagoing attack drones, and literally thousands of small drones every month.
They are retrofitting and modernizing soviet attack helicopters, jets, and armor- a lot of their tanks are rebuilt captured russian tanks, but updated.
The problem is they cant do it fast enough. For instance they do make their own artillery shells, but currently only in older russian sizes. There are plans afoot to build a couple of factories to make 155mm, which is what many of the donated Nato artillery is. But that will take a couple of years to get going.
Tons and tons of Ukrainian businesses have switched to defense manufacturing, just like in the US in the 40s- fancy clothing designers making body armor, old ladies having Camo Net parties, where they decorate net with cloth scraps, video game companies are building drones and writing software so the drones can identify tanks by type, and so on.
Interestingly enough, Ukraine is also a huge farming country, and a lot of ag businesses have switched to defense needs, tractor companies making mine clearing machinery, tank tow trucks and debris clearance. Ag drones being adapted to drop mortar shells which have been garage kludged. A lot of farm country "make er work" tech in Ukraine- they took 20 or 30 year old surplus sidewinders, and welded up jigs so they can be ground launched by 1980s soviet armored vehicles. They call em FrankenSam.

so yeah, there is a lot of similarity between what happened here in the 40s, and whats happening there now.
 
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it’s funny when they talk about volunteers in Ukraine, haven’t you seen how they are collected by force on the streets? and Russia has never invaded countries such as Hungary, Chechnya and Azerbaijan
I am sorry to say it , but it is a waste of breath to point out facts to some people here, the copium they are smoking has made such a thick cloud around them they have no ability to see reality anymore. :(
 
Actually, my question was addressed to MichiganBuck, who asserted something or other to the effect that an 80% reduction was er, maybe needed/might happen. Mine was a real question, not an argument, and I'm not really in the mood for sarcasm today. But...MB seems to have moved on from that thought.

Do you really think there'll be a nuclear war over Ukraine? Joining NATO, or not? And do you think that will reduce world population by 80%?
it doesnt matter what i think. what matters is that it seems like the western govts are willing to play chicken with nuclear weapons, does that let you sleep well at night? sure as fuck doesnt let me...
 
From what tid bits I've gathered about an all out nuke exchange between Russia and the US. US claims that we can see every launch the Russians make 24hr/seven days. We can determine what type. So a first strike by the Russians would be met with a response before the missels hit. A single missel would actually stand a better chance of getting by than a massive strike not that it would be any more successful but may appear to be accidental. If the Russians don't have that ability now they will sooner or later. So as crazy as Putin is all this talk about a nuke war is typical Russian blowhard bull.

Any confrontation with NATO would probably go like this , a month of panning and logistics and a few weeks of warfare and the mighty Russian Bear would look like an abandoned cub and if Putin doesn't believe that then he really is crazy.

So any nation that wants to join the nuke club also gets a complmentary ticket to our watch list. It doesn't make them safer.They would be better off spending their money on their economy. No way to get around MAD.

No matter who says what about the Ukraine war in my opinion it is all on delusional Putin and a hand full of his yes men / cronies . I don't believe that the majority of Russian citizens ever wanted a war with Ukraine but unless they get some back bone this shit won't stop until Putin dies.
we have the measures to shoot down SOME nukes, not all. if russia were to launch multiples, are you 100% confident we'd shoot them all down? i'm not
 
US forces have been training for a russian invasion of Europe since 1945. This is nothing new. The Russians have been practicing invading european countries by invading Hungary, Chechnya, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The idea that NOW, there is a real danger of nuclear war because many countries are aiding Ukraine?
I am dubious.
Putin will say anything, but he would lose even a conventional war with NATO, and really lose a nuclear one.

Russia is losing planes, radars, and missile capacity at a huge rate- out of maybe 9 AWACS style planes (A50 in russia) they have lost two of them in the last couple of months. And thats assuming 9 actually work. They are losing bombers every week. 1/3 of their air force (on paper) has been lost. But just the wear and tear of daily missions means that the remaining 2/3 is nowhere near all flight ready and operational. US fighters need about 20 hours of maintenance for every flight hour, russian jets are, if anything, worse. No way they are at official on the books strength.
They have lost thousands of tanks, mostly the newest ones (and most "new" russian tanks are 80s or older). Their ability to do much against NATO or the US is declining rapidly. Ukraine is wearing them out, finding their weak spots, and doing it at a bargain basement rate, destroying 5 million dollar tanks every week with 2000 dollar drones.
The thing Russia will really have to worry about it all those other "Soviet Socialist Republics" wanting independence too. The russian casualties have been disproportionately the non-russian soldiers- 65% of the "russian" army is from parts that are not "russia", including indigenous tribes from Siberia, lots of muslims from the Caucasus region, and lots from the areas near China. These people are being killed in huge numbers, and are usually just in the army because the regions are so poor.
There have been a long series of rebellions against moscow within russia, and no reason for there not to be more in the future.

Supporting Ukraine saves the US military hundreds of billions of dollars over fighting them ourselves. Its an incredible bargain. Probably half of the yearly 1 trillion US defense budget is dedicated to being prepared to fight Russia and/or China. The small amount we have spent on sending otherwise obsolete stuff to Ukraine is so much cheaper than just being ready to fight them costs.

Remember, about 90% of the money "sent" to Ukraine never leaves the USA- its the paper value of the ancient weapons we are sending them, and the money is actually being spent buying shiny new ones from US arms manufacturers. Much of this stuff would have been scrapped- which costs money. We have thousands of 90s or older armored vehicles, missiles and rockets, all of which are just sitting there, past their pull dates.
there are NO winners in a nuclear war, how is that so difficult to comprehend?
 
the population of Ukraine is 40 million or so. Current miltary strength is about 400,000. A lot of whom are volunteers.
So I guess the answer to your question would be the other 99% of the population of Ukraine?
A lot of women are in the military there, and they accept volunteers up to the age of 60, I believe.
They are pretty patriotic, its their country which is being invaded.
spoke to my mom on the phone last night, her sister is still back in western ukraine. my cousins and nephews are having to hide because there are troops/police walking around everywhere, and are grabbing anyone of fighting age and forcing them to fight. get fucked with your 'volunteer' crap. they're even talking about forcefully drafting women to go on the front lines. i will believe my relatives that actually LIVE there over your bullshit western media sources.
 
I am sorry to say it , but it is a waste of breath to point out facts to some people here, the copium they are smoking has made such a thick cloud around them they have no ability to see reality anymore.

Amazing how all you guys are just arguing month after month about what you saw on TV, as if images on these black rectangles are reality.

1. If you don't know what's happening inside the neighbor's house three doors down, what basis do you have for thinking you know jack about what's happening 7000 miles away?

2. Even if you did have clairvoyance about it, so what? What are you gonna do about it? Vote harder? Why waste time dwelling on things you have no control over?

3. Have you noticed yet that all the evangelical efforts you've made to bring people over to your point of view has resulted in ZERO conversions?
 
I have seen some talk on the web about NATO is sending official NATO troop to ukraine in an attempt to block russia from moving on Odessa. Just talk and no link to back it up yet but after what macron recently said this is very believable.
Lets hope this does not happen.
 
3. Have you noticed yet that all the evangelical efforts you've made to bring people over to your point of view has resulted in ZERO conversions?
I have no motivation to try and "convert" those who are missled by the propaganda , that would be a pointless waste of breath (typing in this case). Sooner or later their world will fall apart and they will realize how they have been missled by the media they worship so much.
 
We keep talking about numbers based on population...thing is, everything was manual in ww2, there were no guided missiles, attack helicopters, or strike fighters. There was no shoulder fired guided missile systems or fighters and bombers that could fly around the world non stop. So manpower numbers go down but efficiency goes way up. Basically it's a pointless comparison these days. It's like saying yeah I can make a mold cavity on a Bridgeport without a dro by maping all the coordinates vs doing it on a vmc. In the 40s and 60s that's how it was done...in 2024 we model, program, and send it to the vmc to get cut in like 1/20th the time and a million times more accurate.

Apples to apples folks.

Now I am a huge fan of ww2, I personally think it was the greatest war ever fought, and brought technological advances the likes never seen before that opened many many doors. But it was still manpower intensive. It was a different war, and to compare it to today's military just doesn't work.
 








 
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