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slowest summer in our 20 years.

The machinery dealer in Vancouver BC I bought a DRO part from said they've never seen the Lower Mainland this slow for work.
The only guys they've seen with much work is the hydraulic guys working on the Port of Vancouver upgrade and the oil pipeline, and both these projects are ending soon.

We're slow here too, but we need the time to rearrange the shop for the new machine showing up in 8 days.

How did the rest of the fall shake out people here?
 
We have been at 100% capacity all year. Looks like we might coast to the end of the year though, and I have nothing lined up for January.

We are getting absolutely hammered with RFQ's (aerospace and defense), but none of them are getting traction. I suspect maybe a lot of window shopping before budgets get turned loose next month.

I have seen much more cost sensitivity than I am used to in the last few months. I know we need a better sales presence, but it is really hard to get motivated to quote big jobs for purchasing agents that appear to be spamming a dozen shops and just looking for the lowest bidder.
 
Big jobs - looking for lowest bidder.

This would seem to be Business 101?
Or at the very least - a lower bid?
(at least for private industry)


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 
Big jobs - looking for lowest bidder.
This would seem to be Business 101?
You would think so .... but then again, I am often shocked by the number of people here spouting "buy schunk ! they are pretty ! just increase your prices !"

I mean sure if the job is for 57,000 pcs and the tool will pay for the increased cost in this single run but to many people, it's just "buy the best ! Doesn't matter if it takes twenty years to pay for itself !"

Money counts, ya know ?
 
You would think so .... but then again, I am often shocked by the number of people here spouting "buy schunk ! they are pretty ! just increase your prices !"

I mean sure if the job is for 57,000 pcs and the tool will pay for the increased cost in this single run but to many people, it's just "buy the best ! Doesn't matter if it takes twenty years to pay for itself !"

Money counts, ya know ?
 
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You don't run a business worried or calculating the money, the money is a by product.
Kind of but also sort of disagree. Life is a big game. Money is your tight end. Your imagination is the wide receiver. Accounting is offensive line, lawyer is your defensive line. And the crusty old lady at the front desk is your nose tackle :) It's team play, with a lot of moving parts.

And in the end, we all die :D
 
Kind of but also sort of disagree. Life is a big game. Money is your tight end. Your imagination is the wide receiver. Accounting is offensive line, lawyer is your defensive line. And the crusty old lady at the front desk is your nose tackle :) It's team play, with a lot of moving parts.

And in the end, we all die :D
No, I get that part of it of course, my wife works as an accountant so your gonna hear about it haha
But I've never worried about the money, as Peter said in the video, you do the work, supply the value, and dinero rolls in.
 
Big jobs - looking for lowest bidder.

This would seem to be Business 101?
Or at the very least - a lower bid?
(at least for private industry)


---------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
Big is relative. But sure, I agree.

I only mentioned it because I have seen a change. Even a year ago we were still winning 25% - 50% of RFQs.

Last few months it might be less than 5%. The win rate has been so low that I am now no-quoting several purchasing agents outright. I’ve never had to do that before.
 
Big is relative. But sure, I agree.

I only mentioned it because I have seen a change. Even a year ago we were still winning 25% - 50% of RFQs.

Last few months it might be less than 5%. The win rate has been so low that I am now no-quoting several purchasing agents outright. I’ve never had to do that before.

Doo you know what % of the quoted jobs actually get released?

From my vantage point, it seems that most people here are under the impression that Big Company A needs to buy this part _ at any cost.

But one of two things has, or is happening:

A) Big Company A is quoting the work themselves as well. If they git it, they are expecting to sub part of it out, or at the very least, they need to be able to sub it out. (price wise) If they git the job, they can then look at how much time they have available in-house, and what jobs came back with quotes on the high side, and they run those, and sub out the others...

B) Maybe they quoted the job many months ago, and they shot from the hip on the cost to sub it out, or - went with the value if they were to have ran it in-house. Now they have the job, and now they are sending out RFQ's, and if they all come back ridiculous, they will just pay overtime to their guys.


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 
I have seen much more cost sensitivity than I am used to in the last few months. I know we need a better sales presence, but it is really hard to get motivated to quote big jobs for purchasing agents that appear to be spamming a dozen shops and just looking for the lowest bidder.
We've seen this too. For the last 3 years, most of my RFQ's went to whoever could turn it around the fastest for me.

Now customers are asking for $ again, which is almost a new feeling.
 
I’ve done pretty good this year.
Tho I belive that’s directly due to financial pressures driving customers to seek alternative options vs their go to vendors.
Lots of company’s out there that used the same sources for years are now getting sticker shock and seeking alternative options.
 
So far it's gonna be a really slow start to the next year, we'll see what the numbers have to say in 2-3 months.
Not worried either way, lot's of other things I can keep busy with. Glad I didn't add another machine earlier this year.
 
Still super slow here. Everyone I talk to around here is slow. Slow enough that I am seriously looking at selling off the eqpt and moving on. Had a few really good years after covid, and personally have done pretty well. But pretty tired of the ups and downs and insane customer demands that seem to be getting more and more unrealistic . ( like the ones they send me requiring 8620 to a spec so tight I cannot find matl that meets, then machining, then carburizing, then post HT machining, with a 3 day leadtime. Not joking or exaggerating. On top of a core hardness and yield post HT that 3 HT vendors say they cannot and will not guarantee )

Laid off two of my guys a few weeks ago that didnt deserve it, and would rather never do that again.....

If we make it through December, everythings gunna be alright come summertime....
 
Took a bit of a slow down in late August and by mid October I'm back up to my eyeballs in work.............gun stuff is picking up again cuz, well, elections :rolleyes5: ...................I'm sick of staring at four walls..............all I want to do is go outside and chop wood.
 
I have been "Slow" for the last month. I say "Slow" as in, I am all caught up with things and its time to do maintenance on the shop and prepare for winter.

I have new jobs lined up but parts arent needed just yet, so I am awaiting a P.O.

Whenever I get slow, it just means I am ahead of things. I have a few face to face meetings to do in the next few weeks for preperation on next years work. A few auctions to pick up random shop stuff at this week.

I have been told about a few places closing up shop at a moments notice recently too. Some people are just ready to throw in the towel and retire instead of dealing with the uncertainty in their older age. As more shops close up for whatever reasons, their will be jobs that still need to get done. These jobs will find their way to vendors with open machine time and the cycle begins again.

Stick with things and stay out of debt. It seems like we have been at 150% for a few years and now we slowed down to 100% and it feels like we are way slower than we are.
 
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I only mentioned it because I have seen a change. Even a year ago we were still winning 25% - 50% of RFQs.

Last few months it might be less than 5%. The win rate has been so low that I am now no-quoting several purchasing agents outright. I’ve never had to do that before.

I've been experiencing the same thing. 2022 - I could throw virtually any *reasonable* price at a job and get it. This year there's been huge drop-off in conversions from RFQ's to PO's.

I know that one of my bigger customers from 2022 hired two new purchasers who are intent on "making their mark" on the company, so to speak, so what was once a fantastic customer has turned into an utter bottom feeder. 85% win rate down to maybe 10%, and that's with probably a 30% overall price point reduction - at this point, I took away that reduction and don't waste my time trying to drill down to best pricing for them. They'll take it, or they won't.

October was a horrifically slow month - pretty much all of my production-type work died off, but late November into this month has us slammed with everyone wanting things in before the holidays.

It's weird out there.
 
The 3rd quarter was absolute crap. The start of the 4th was too.
(Three months of crickets turned what should have been a great year, into barely breaking what we did in '22.)

Everything changed in the beginning of November.
PO's came flying in one after the other.
Then the 'gotta have it in a week' requests started on 11/17.
If we were going to mess with Thanksgiving, they had to make it worth our time/ overtime.
They did.
Today we have work through the end of the year, but nothing much booked in Q1 2024.

Cheers!
 








 
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