dcsipo
Diamond
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2014
- Location
- Baldwin, MD/USA
The world is about to re shuffle. Supply chains are about to be disrupted
Are you in the right place?
Are you in the right place?
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Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.
Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.
I see no value to this thread other than to stir up shit. If this were a democracy, I would vote to lock it immediately. You know damn well where it's going.
But do you own Roubles tho!?
Mr. Dickman,
Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.
Mr. Dickman,
Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.
Will see. The US with Mexico below and Canada above is in a much better position than China or Indonesia. The only place in that region in a good position is Australia and New Zealand. The rest are part of the first island chain that China always threatens.Not disagreeing with major changes being afoot, but..
Will it be a US 'manufacturing revival', or... will those with the Big Bucks - EU + UK & Oceania - as well as USA & Canada - simply continue to outsource 'offshore', but in different directions?
2CW
Good points, but the world needs to figure out how to make the new supply chains work. Siberia is not the only possible source of raw materials. 10 years is a long time, space mining may become a reality.As-in "other than China" for manufacturing capacity, (as much due to unpredictable 'zero-Covid' lockdown effect on manufacturing AND even shipping..) and "other than Russia" for Platinum Group metals, Nickel, primary aluminium and steel?
Both are a reality, onshored manufacturing will be much more automated, and labor-intensive stuff will head to Mexica, and probably india.My bet is a change in outsourcing is easily as likely as bringing capacity back "onshore".
Because the cost of compliance with stiffer regulations... and the burden of 'unsane' liability legals .. has for several scores of years been a bigger factor than the fully-burdened cost of labour alone.
2CW
We will be forced to solve all the above issues because we are pulling back from the world order, we are changing the rules of conflict and the rest of the world is going to fragment.
Mr. Dickman,
Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.
Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.
The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.
And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.
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Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.
Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.
The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.
And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.
------------------------------------------------
Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.
Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.
The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.
And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.
------------------------------------------------
Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.
I was told that is the reason for the uncontrolled crossings at our southern border.
The present admin says "we NEED them to fill job openings".
You believe that, don't you?
I can't speak to the issue of uncontrolled crossings...
I do know for 100% sure we need the labor to harvest fruits and vegetables. There was a recent year (don't remember which year) where the fruit growers in Eastern Washington had to let the apples, and other fruits rot on the trees because of a lack of pickers.
Also we need them to work in construction. In my family construction business we could use 3 or 4 right now. They're the only ones wiling to start at $20/hr. It's near impossible to get the white-boy, Bill Gates wannabees to work.
john.k said:top line Chinese bike,maybe $1000
Mr. Dickman,
Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival.
Something on the order of two MILLION.. who WERE working outside of Ukraine already... were logged back INTO UKRAINE.. to help with the war effort.
That boosted Ukraine's armed forces ... and logistics support. Bigtime. Because - unlike Tsar Stal-put-ler's [1] struggle to even conscript warm bodies as fodder for Ukraine's artillery - Ukraine's returning expats WANTED to 'be there' for Ukraine. Most men had stayed. Women and children scarpered. MANY men....and more than a few women .. came back to fight ... or help. Around 10% to 15% of Ukraine's combat roles are staffed by women, BTW.
But... that also put a hurt on Europe and not-only as factory workers, forklift operators, construction workers, long haul-truckers, taxi-drivers, "etc." went short in the labour markets Ukrainian expats HAD been serving...
And yazz... 'the plan' in the USA seems to be to legalize drugs .... and require abandonment of any form of honest work.
"As ye sow, so shall ye reap..."
[1] "Dead man, walking", if ever was, wannabee-Tsar Stalputler:
Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News
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