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Thought provoking video regarding automakers worldwide

hanermo

Titanium
Joined
Sep 28, 2009
Location
barcelona, spain
Fwiw ..
The Tesla Lesson is that EV cars need a big battery - 70-100 kWh.

The big battery is then short-cycled, meaning low draw, almost every day -- together with thermal conditioning thus leading to the battery lasting a long time, 10 years ++, with probably 70-80% capacity left after ten years of use.

IF the EV cars have strong/heavy transmissions like the teslas, aka able to take 700 Hp+ peak loads in very heavy 2000 kg cars, the drivetrains last nearly indefinitely.
Aka like all commercial trucks on the road, except just 1 speed, no gearing needed.
This is another Tesla Lesson.
Make the gear really strong - for the blistering EV acceleration of a heavy car.

A Big Battery EV car with a strong transmission will last a long time with minimal maintenance.
And it costs about 6x less to run than a diesel or gas car.

The new Hyundai is a good example.
42000$ - 52000 $.
It´s still a premium "lux" category car - but much less than a Tesla.

Tesla now in 2022 is likely to make about 1 M cars, +/-, and keeps expanding at 60% exponential rate every 12-14 months.
Demand far outstrips supply, one of the reasons they raised prices by about 10k per car.
They make huge margins, about 20% marginal, and as they keep expanding volume by large amounts their cogs keep dropping 1-2% y/y exponential, due to volume, automation, and acquired skills.
Tesla is the most profitable auto maker in the world, by far.

Tesla is about 1-2% of total auto volume globally, and likely to be 10% or == 6-8M within 5 years.
Similar to Toyota and VW (10M each) - from whom it takes away some of their most profitable premium sedan sales.

Within a few years Tesla, Huyndai, and similar will have a starter model around 30k with a Big Battery and decent powertrain.
The battery production capacity is the bottleneck, as I have said for 6 years.
Just like RAM, processors, HDDs were in their day.

Exponential growth of EV batteries will lead both to cheaper batteries and to better batteries and to cheaper good-and-proper EVs at starting prices around 30k.
Tesla has about 200 copy-cat competitors around the world - some of them well funded and or lead by ex-tesla engineers.
There is little doubt most will die off, a few may be acquired.
But it is likely that one or more will succeed.
Perhaps owned by Hyundai or VW or whomever.
 

snowman

Diamond
Joined
Jul 31, 2004
Location
Southeast Michigan
This was my observational experience and he is only slightly older than I am. I watched my whole family drive the big three, and work for them or a business that supported them. I went to GMI. When I needed a new car because I had a long commute and was sick of working on a Ford Escort, I bought a Hyundai. I drove my Hyundai for 200,000 miles then totalled it out.

I had watched my entire family struggle with cars that usually made it past the 36,000 mile warranty, then took an expensive dump. My Hyundai made it 200,000 miles on tire changes, brake changes and a very questionable oil change history and I had to replace a wheel bearing under warranty. The only reason I totalled it out is because I needed to do the timing belt and didn't want to deal with that on top of the body damage. In fact, I drove it for six months following the accident before I finally said it was time to take the check and run.

Since, I have had American made vehicles that struggle to make it to 200,000, however every Asian made vehicle I've had tries pushing 300,000. I sold my last Toyota Corolla with 275k miles to a guy who worked for Toyota tech center that could get dirt cheap parts, he liked wrenching and needed something that got good gas mileage.

Right now, I am driving two Ford Focus hatchbacks. They've got 175k on them and are already starting to show their age. One of them broke a fucking control arm. Like it straight up rusted through...and it eats brakes for breakfast even though I buy premium pads and rotors. The other wore out it's alternator, had it's OEM starter corrode into nothingness and the radio doesn't work and half of the interior mechanisms are shot. Neither has power steering anymore.

The Chrysler rusting away in the back yard had the same corrosion issue with the starter (the wire from the solenoid to the motor literally just arc flashes and disappears), the primary electrical distribution block has issues, the trans was slipping at 60k miles, the power steering is loud, I had to replace an alternator and had multiple parts in the cooling system fail.

This doesn't even touch upon "hey, lets continue to make brake lines out of pot metal while the rest of the world has went to a Cu Ni alloy".
 

Ries

Diamond
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Location
Edison Washington USA
hmm, your ancestors staged a total famine in Leningrad during World War II. So who's the orc?
my family members fled the cossacks right around 1915. None were left alive by WW2 who stayed. Heads chopped off by mounted cossacks, or just hung from lamp posts. No famine staging - they were all in Pittsburgh during WW2.
Either that, or they went to Minnesota around 1900. I refuse to believe that the residents of Sbika Minnesota had much to do with famines in St Petersburg.
 

mrSanders62

Hot Rolled
Joined
Jan 8, 2022
my family members fled the cossacks right around 1915. None were left alive by WW2 who stayed. Heads chopped off by mounted cossacks, or just hung from lamp posts. No famine staging - they were all in Pittsburgh during WW2.
Either that, or they went to Minnesota around 1900. I refuse to believe that the residents of Sbika Minnesota had much to do with famines in St Petersburg.
there were a lot of Ukrainians among the Cossacks. so who is an orc?

and I did not find any evidence that in 1915 the Cossacks chopped off everyone's heads
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
Thought I'd just post this URL here as it'll likely resonate with a few of the usual posters. Those who think that their way is the only way even when a majority of fellow citizens of their own home State disagree.


How dare people who disagree with you vote or work, right?

PDW
I did some research on that Senator and NOWHERE could I find exactly what Mostly Silly Noise is claiming. He IS criticized by the left for supporting voter ID laws (which they call "voter suppression") and opposing DC statehood, which would defy a provison in the Constitution that prohibits DC being part of any state.
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
there were a lot of Ukrainians among the Cossacks. so who is an orc?

and I did not find any evidence that in 1915 the Cossacks chopped off everyone's heads
There are claims that Poles and Cossacks hanged many Jews in 1915 and drove others from their homes after their loyalty was questioned.


According to Haaretz Cossacks instituted pogroms against Jews in Ukraine in 1919. In neither case is "chopping heads off" mentioned although the Cossacks, who often fought from horseback, no doubt struck many in the head with their swords.

 

gustafson

Diamond
Joined
Sep 4, 2002
Location
People's Republic
There are not a lot of countries who have a lot to be proud about WRT their treatment of Jews 100+ years ago. The resident Russian's attempts to blame Ukraine for, well, everything are duly noted and chuckled at
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
"prohibits DC being part of any state."

But not of having a state's right to representation.
State's rights without being a state?

Please reference the section in the Constitution that would allow that.

Article 1, Section 8 says that Congress shall have the power "To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of Government of the United States". Therefore, as an entity where Congress itself has exclusive legislative authority it would be a bizarre creature indeed to have Representatives and Senators yet no distinct legislature of its own.
 
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mkd

Stainless
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
Trash seeking alpha article
Interesting if not humorous article trashing Tesla.
Author believes number of available EV models by itself is a negative for Tesla. Also claims the EVs from Toyota and GM ar going to overtake Tesla as main thesis, but gives no detail on how that is going to happen.
The fact is Toyota is highly confused (due to nepotism) as to the direction of it's company and GM build shitty ecomomy EVs that'll burn your house down or a 9000lb electric hummer ( no not your mom lol) for a target adience of nobody for $120,000. So that's just a starter retort to this trash article.
 

Ries

Diamond
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Location
Edison Washington USA
Trash seeking alpha article
Interesting if not humorous article trashing Tesla.
Author believes number of available EV models by itself is a negative for Tesla. Also claims the EVs from Toyota and GM ar going to overtake Tesla as main thesis, but gives no detail on how that is going to happen.
The fact is Toyota is highly confused (due to nepotism) as to the direction of it's company and GM build shitty ecomomy EVs that'll burn your house down or a 9000lb electric hummer ( no not your mom lol) for a target adience of nobody for $120,000. So that's just a starter retort to this trash article.
Toyota bet on the wrong horse in 1992 or so- They decided that electric cars wont be viable, and went all in on hydrogen cars. They have spent close to $14 billion on fuel cell and hydrogen tech, and still dont have a vehicle, after 30 years, that anyone wants to buy. Current models of the Mirai, their only US hydrogen car sold right now, are being discounted 65% from list price, and there are still very few fueling stations, and its more expensive to drive than a gas car, much less an electric. Its a $50,000 car that Toyota is selling for an effective out the door price of $17,500. Obviously if it was popular, that would not be the case. Hey, we're Giving Em Away!
Fuel Cells may, someday, be cost effective and practical, although most of what I can read indicates that the infrastructure, including vehicle tanks, are expensive enough that it will probably be for commercial and industrial uses, more than private autos, and it still could be 10 to 15 years out.
Also- the hydrogen car is essentially an electric car with a built in power generating plant. The drive train is electric- the hydrogen is chemically combined with oxygen to create electricity. Maybe you can even get a contractor model that will run your skill saw.
Hyundai is the more likely company to pick up the slack from Tesla, on lower priced models. They have a bunch of hybrids, and 2 electric cars for sale in the US right now, and their cars are lower priced, and have a decent rep for reliability.
My guess is that GM will do just fine with 1/2 ton electric pickups, when they finally get em on the sales lots.
 
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gustafson

Diamond
Joined
Sep 4, 2002
Location
People's Republic
State's rights without being a state?

Please reference the section in the Constitution that would allow that.

Article 1, Section 8 says that Congress shall have the power "To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of Government of the United States". Therefore, as an entity where Congress itself has exclusive legislative authority it would be a bizarre creature indeed to have Representatives and Senators yet no distinct legislature of its own.
Not sure where this all came in and I have my own doubts about the particulars of DC being a state, but it does in fact have a government, and I am not sure that the Constitution requires a particular legislative structure . Pretty sure the legislature of some states in the past was not much larger than the DC city council
 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
Trash seeking alpha article
Interesting if not humorous article trashing Tesla.
Author believes number of available EV models by itself is a negative for Tesla. Also claims the EVs from Toyota and GM ar going to overtake Tesla as main thesis, but gives no detail on how that is going to happen.
The fact is Toyota is highly confused (due to nepotism) as to the direction of it's company and GM build shitty ecomomy EVs that'll burn your house down or a 9000lb electric hummer ( no not your mom lol) for a target adience of nobody for $120,000. So that's just a starter retort to this trash article.
As with just about any internet based opinion piece it's all about how many clicks you can attract. At the very least split it up 50-50 and while one side may adore Tesla it's likely there is another side that hate Tesla. I'd guess it's mainly about Elon Musk rather than his product.
Right now EVs in this country are available in somewhat limited numbers and Tesla sort of seems to be purchased by many as sort of a fashion statement. Soon EVs will become a commodity product and in a few years the tech and finance gig writers will go on comment on the next big thing---whatever that may be.
Anway...here is one comment about the author of the article you mention.....https://feedback.seekingalpha.com/en/communities/1/topics/218846-paul-franke-is-a-failure
 

mkd

Stainless
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
Toyota bet on the wrong horse in 1992 or so- They decided that electric cars wont be viable, and went all in on hydrogen cars. They have spent close to $14 billion on fuel cell and hydrogen tech, and still dont have a vehicle, after 30 years, that anyone wants to buy. Current models of the Mirai, their only US hydrogen car sold right now, are being discounted 65% from list price, and there are still very few fueling stations, and its more expensive to drive than a gas car, much less an electric. Its a $50,000 car that Toyota is selling for an effective out the door price of $17,500. Obviously if it was popular, that would not be the case. Hey, we're Giving Em Away!
Fuel Cells may, someday, be cost effective and practical, although most of what I can read indicates that the infrastructure, including vehicle tanks, are expensive enough that it will probably be for commercial and industrial uses, more than private autos, and it still could be 10 to 15 years out.
Also- the hydrogen car is essentially an electric car with a built in power generating plant. The drive train is electric- the hydrogen is chemically combined with oxygen to create electricity. Maybe you can even get a contractor model that will run your skill saw.
Hyundai is the more likely company to pick up the slack from Tesla, on lower priced models. They have a bunch of hybrids, and 2 electric cars for sale in the US right now, and their cars are lower priced, and have a decent rep for reliability.
My guess is that GM will do just fine with 1/2 ton electric pickups, when they finally get em on the sales lots.
Yeah, Toyota is lost in lala land. Hydrogen is a non-starter right out of the gate. Laws of thermodynamics say so just on the fuel production side. There first major EV vehicle was just a total recall and last i heard they still don't know how to keep the wheels from falling off, and are offering buyback. Yes, the wheels fall off. LoL.
The problem with legacy auto is structural, particularly with what is left of US companies. Creating shitty cars, to support stealerships and unions, that literally fall apart on a set schedule only works if everyone is in on the game. If Tesla was doing it people would be crying en-mass about 2012 models, and the media would be shouting it out every chance they could with that fat GM ad revenue. Toyota's awesome implementation of W. Edward Deming's process control can only get you so far with having a riduculous gasoline power plant and needed speed reduction transmissions in the nose of a car. 500,000 mile lifspan simple electric motor is superiour in every way, and the public knows it. When is the last time your CNC's Spindle motor had a coolant leak, the fuel pump went bad. etc etc?
only way GM's EV silerado see the light of day is with a big fat Biden subsidy. Maybe they'll call an 'inflation reduction act'. lol.
 

mkd

Stainless
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
As with just about any internet based opinion piece it's all about how many clicks you can attract. At the very least split it up 50-50 and while one side may adore Tesla it's likely there is another side that hate Tesla. I'd guess it's mainly about Elon Musk rather than his product.
Right now EVs in this country are available in somewhat limited numbers and Tesla sort of seems to be purchased by many as sort of a fashion statement. Soon EVs will become a commodity product and in a few years the tech and finance gig writers will go on comment on the next big thing---whatever that may be.
Anway...here is one comment about the author of the article you mention.....https://feedback.seekingalpha.com/en/communities/1/topics/218846-paul-franke-is-a-failure
Thanks for the link. Don't scroll to the bottom under any circumstances. Hunter biden's laptop was there.
 

mrSanders62

Hot Rolled
Joined
Jan 8, 2022
There are claims that Poles and Cossacks hanged many Jews in 1915 and drove others from their homes after their loyalty was questioned.


According to Haaretz Cossacks instituted pogroms against Jews in Ukraine in 1919. In neither case is "chopping heads off" mentioned although the Cossacks, who often fought from horseback, no doubt struck many in the head with their swords.

if Jews were killed by Poles and Ukrainians, it remains to understand why Russia is to blame? Rees might be interested to know where the numerous Jews from the Baltic countries have gone.
 

mrSanders62

Hot Rolled
Joined
Jan 8, 2022
There are not a lot of countries who have a lot to be proud about WRT their treatment of Jews 100+ years ago. The resident Russian's attempts to blame Ukraine for, well, everything are duly noted and chuckled at
Or maybe just someone brazenly lying?
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
Not sure where this all came in and I have my own doubts about the particulars of DC being a state, but it does in fact have a government, and I am not sure that the Constitution requires a particular legislative structure . Pretty sure the legislature of some states in the past was not much larger than the DC city council
And the biggest obstacle to the fantasy of DC statehood?

Getting an amendment through a Constitutional Convention to change the wording re the seat of government. Good luck with that, as most of the "flyover states" would likely fight tooth and nail to prevent it.

Alaska, the largest state, is 570,641 square miles.
Rhode Island, the smallest state, is 1,214 square miles.
Washington DC, per the United States Constitution is limited to 100 square miles.

Making it a state would be a cruel joke on the rest, made worse by it having the Capitol, the White House, the Supreme Court, the Smithsonian, Washington Navy Yard, FBI Headquarters, a horde of diplomatic missions, and numerous other important places within its tiny borders.
 

gustafson

Diamond
Joined
Sep 4, 2002
Location
People's Republic
And the biggest obstacle to the fantasy of DC statehood?

Getting an amendment through a Constitutional Convention to change the wording re the seat of government. Good luck with that, as most of the "flyover states" would likely fight tooth and nail to prevent it.

Alaska, the largest state, is 570,641 square miles.
Rhode Island, the smallest state, is 1,214 square miles.
Washington DC, per the United States Constitution is limited to 100 square miles.

Making it a state would be a cruel joke on the rest, made worse by it having the Capitol, the White House, the Supreme Court, the Smithsonian, Washington Navy Yard, FBI Headquarters, a horde of diplomatic missions, and numerous other important places within its tiny borders.
Well, mostly I agree with the issue being constitutionally problematic, however, There has never been a size or population limit in the constitution for statehood. DC has more people than Wyoming and Vermont and is within 10 percent of Alaska and North Dakota.
Representation is about people, not land mass. If it was Alaska would have more representation than any other state.
 








 
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