Thought provoking video regarding automakers worldwide

[Scottl]

And another hit for widespread adoption of electric vehicles. New York City just found out its electric garbage trucks can't handle a full day of snowplowing.

“Alvin Bragg Says Criminals Have More Rights Than You!” – NYC Police Union Blasts Bragg with Billboard Truck After He Indicts Cop (VIDEO) | USSA News | The Tea Party's Front Page.

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ussanews.com

Sanitation Commissioner Jessica Tisch told the New York City city council earlier this month: “We found that they could not plow the snow effectively – they basically conked out after four hours. We need them to go 12 hours. Given the current state of the technology, I don’t see today a path forward to fully electrifying the rear loader portion of the fleet by 2040.”

 

[eKretz]

There's a shocker. Electric motors draw a shit-ton more power under heavy load, and batteries don't last as long in cold weather. Nobody could have seen that coming. Nope.

I've been saying the same thing to all the guys who are impressed by the electric F150 and Silverado. Load that sucker up and then let's see how impressed you are. And even moreso in winter.

 

[DDoug]

And another hit for widespread adoption of electric vehicles. New York City just found out its electric garbage trucks can't handle a full day of snowplowing.

“Alvin Bragg Says Criminals Have More Rights Than You!” – NYC Police Union Blasts Bragg with Billboard Truck After He Indicts Cop (VIDEO) | USSA News | The Tea Party's Front Page.

[#item_full_content] Author: This content is courtesy of, and owned and copyrighted by, https://survivalmagazine.org and its author. This content is made available by use of the public RSS feed offered by the host site and is used for educational purposes only. If you are the author or represent...

ussanews.com

Sanitation Commissioner Jessica Tisch told the New York City city council earlier this month: “We found that they could not plow the snow effectively – they basically conked out after four hours. We need them to go 12 hours. Given the current state of the technology, I don’t see today a path forward to fully electrifying the rear loader portion of the fleet by 2040.”

Bring back the trolley catenary....

 

[john.k]

You dont see garbage trucks plowing snow here much ,so Im assuming lekky trucks will be taking my trash away shortly.........Notice a pop up on PM for Chinese BEV pickups and light commercials ,and there are already thousands of BEV light commercials on the road here ,mostly Isuzu........GM could be part of this ,except they went broke a few too many times ,and had to sell off all the profitable stuff to pay out pensions.

 

[john.k]

Also note Toyota selling turnkey hydrogen fuel cell car fleets.......hydrogen makes a lot of sense for fleets ,with fast fillup and turnaround,and and virtually no battery related pollution.........theoretically a fuel cell car could last forever ,as there is no battery replacement cost/residual car value inversion point.

 

[DDoug]

Hydrogen leaks don't pool around to cause fires & explosions either.

 

[john.k]

On the telly,Tesla China dropped car prices by 25% ,causing riots among recent buyers...........looks like Elgon s profit wont be very much this year

 

[TeachMePlease]

On the telly,Tesla China dropped car prices by 25% ,causing riots among recent buyers...........looks like Elgon s profit wont be very much this year

They cut them like 2.5-5% in the US too.

 

[john.k]

I see Tesla prices reduced by E5000 to E12,000 in Eurozone........seems the Berlin factory is in full production ,too,causing stock buildups.

 

[Bill D]

With no sales rooms I thought tesla's were sold at list price with no negotiation?
Bill D

 

[jaguar36]

With no sales rooms I thought tesla's were sold at list price with no negotiation?
Bill D

They are, but the list price can change.

 

[hanermo]

Well..
Tesla accounts for about 12% of all sales worldwide of bevs / cars.
1.2 M units last year, up about 40%, and expected 40%++ growth to about 1.8M units in 2023.
The global market sold about 65 M cars in 2022.

For comparison, the worlds biggest, VW made about 6M units and Toyota about 10M, depending.
So at 2023, leading, Tesla will probably be about 1/3 the size of VW in units, and about equal in total car revenue.
And bigger than VW in total car marginal profit.

Tesla makes about 23% gross profit on each car.
This is 7x higher than toyota.

So for comparison 1.2M units of Tesla cars in 2022 == 8.4M units for Toyota for the same marginal profits.
Passenger cars sold with ICE declined about 14% for VW and about the same -7-12%- total units worldwide, 2022.
NEVs climbed about 40% by units sold.
This trend is likely to continue, and probably increase.

Total global battery pack production was about 650 GWh, 2022, expected to grow 14x by 2030, to somewhere around 15.000 Gwh.
The battery pack market is about 65B$ per year, 2022, and expected to rise in line with global production.

Based on volumes and production efficiency alone, tsla expects about 53$/kWh battery costs within 3-5 years.
From around 100 $/kWh costs in 2022.

It is very likely some improvements in battery chemistry, aka efficiency, will happen, where about 1.5T$ is being spent yearly.
And about 200 different companies are well funded to make better batteries with a variety of secret sauces.

Tesla is working on getting their dry cell batteries into production.
Based on tech they acquired by buying maxwell.
They are having difficulties .. this is not unexpected.

BUT .. sooner or later one of the 200+ battery research efforts will actually work, and scale up, at somewhat lower costs or higher power density.

There is no technical reason the power densities might not be astronomically higher at some point.
A flashlight battery might be able to power an ocean liner, at some point.

Battery prices have declined 90% in 14 years.
It´s likely the trend will continue and accelerate.
This happened with MBs, RAM, HDD, processors, phones, internet bandwidth, anything with a lot of money.

And previously with cars.
A car engine costs about 3000€, the transmission + stuff about 3000€, the rest about 5k.
ANYTHING manufactured costs about 5x the raw price of materials, as long as the volume is big enough.
Or about 6$ / kg.
This applies to planes, caterpillars, anything.
Supplier costs, obviously, ignoring sga, assy, ppe, plants, amortisation, marketing.

 

[standardparts]

Well..
Tesla accounts for about 12% of all sales worldwide of bevs / cars.
1.2 M units last year, up about 40%, and expected 40%++ growth to about 1.8M units in 2023.
The global market sold about 65 M cars in 2022.

For comparison, the worlds biggest, VW made about 6M units and Toyota about 10M, depending.
So at 2023, leading, Tesla will probably be about 1/3 the size of VW in units, and about equal in total car revenue.
And bigger than VW in total car marginal profit.

Tesla makes about 23% gross profit on each car.
This is 7x higher than toyota.

So for comparison 1.2M units of Tesla cars in 2022 == 8.4M units for Toyota for the same marginal profits.
Passenger cars sold with ICE declined about 14% for VW and about the same -7-12%- total units worldwide, 2022.
NEVs climbed about 40% by units sold.
This trend is likely to continue, and probably increase.

Total global battery pack production was about 650 GWh, 2022, expected to grow 14x by 2030, to somewhere around 15.000 Gwh.
The battery pack market is about 65B$ per year, 2022, and expected to rise in line with global production.

Based on volumes and production efficiency alone, tsla expects about 53$/kWh battery costs within 3-5 years.
From around 100 $/kWh costs in 2022.

It is very likely some improvements in battery chemistry, aka efficiency, will happen, where about 1.5T$ is being spent yearly.
And about 200 different companies are well funded to make better batteries with a variety of secret sauces.

Tesla is working on getting their dry cell batteries into production.
Based on tech they acquired by buying maxwell.
They are having difficulties .. this is not unexpected.

BUT .. sooner or later one of the 200+ battery research efforts will actually work, and scale up, at somewhat lower costs or higher power density.

There is no technical reason the power densities might not be astronomically higher at some point.
A flashlight battery might be able to power an ocean liner, at some point.

Battery prices have declined 90% in 14 years.
It´s likely the trend will continue and accelerate.
This happened with MBs, RAM, HDD, processors, phones, internet bandwidth, anything with a lot of money.

And previously with cars.
A car engine costs about 3000€, the transmission + stuff about 3000€, the rest about 5k.
ANYTHING manufactured costs about 5x the raw price of materials, as long as the volume is big enough.
Or about 6$ / kg.
This applies to planes, caterpillars, anything.
Supplier costs, obviously, ignoring sga, assy, ppe, plants, amortisation, marketing.

"Tesla makes about 23% gross profit on each car."
That margin seems to be what most report. Assembly times of 30 seconds are quite amazing and no doubt contribute to the profit margin.
Have not paid much attention to advances in manufacture so missed the part about die casting most of the frame/chassis which has to lead to massive production savings.

Have to aknowledge Mr. Munro seems to be a real Musk fan guy but when they autopsy a car it's pretty hard not to see the technology:

And, looks like if you need "Giga" casting tech you need to source it from Italy. HUGE machines with FAST cycle times ( no doubt there are U.S. based press companies and Ford/GM using same tech?)

 

[Ries]

"Tesla makes about 23% gross profit on each car."
That margin seems to be what most report. Assembly times of 30 seconds are quite amazing and no doubt contribute to the profit margin.
Have not paid much attention to advances in manufacture so missed the part about die casting most of the frame/chassis which has to lead to massive production savings.

Have to aknowledge Mr. Munro seems to be a real Musk fan guy but when they autopsy a car it's pretty hard not to see the technology:

And, looks like if you need "Giga" casting tech you need to source it from Italy. HUGE machines with FAST cycle times ( no doubt there are U.S. based press companies and Ford/GM using same tech?)

These are aluminum die casting machines, which include melting the aluminum as well as opening and closing the enormous dies. Not a ”press” in the normal sense of the word. I dont think there is any U S company working on this scale. The Swiss and Germans have a company each, Toshiba has a division, but word is, right now, Musk is negotiating with the chinese to build the next one.

I know Volvo, the chinese company has a much smaller swiss machine and are starting to make some subframes for some models, but aside from that, I think the biggest aluminum castings of any other automakers are much smaller audi and bmw frame rails. No US Ford or GM products currently using this tech.

 

[standardparts]

These are aluminum die casting machines, which include melting the aluminum as well as opening and closing the enormous dies. Not a ”press” in the normal sense of the word. I dont think there is any U S company working on this scale. The Swiss and Germans have a company each, Toshiba has a division, but word is, right now, Musk is negotiating with the chinese to build the next one.

I know Volvo, the chinese company has a much smaller swiss machine and are starting to make some subframes for some models, but aside from that, I think the biggest aluminum castings of any other automakers are much smaller audi and bmw frame rails. No US Ford or GM products currently using this tech.

Italian Giga Press company says press on the way to China--- will do 1 piece cast chassis supposed 20k units a WEEK.
Wonder if importing the die cast chassis to the U.S. could result in a cost saving for EV production?

 

[Ries]

Italian Giga Press company says press on the way to China--- will do 1 piece cast chassis supposed 20k units a WEEK.
Wonder if importing the die cast chassis to the U.S. could result in a cost saving for EV production?

The Italian Giga press being sent to China was ordered years ago. Tesla is now considering a Swiss press from Buhler for the next one.
The Chinese buy more cars every year than the US does, (in total, not specifically Tesla) so my guess is the Chinese factory wont have extra capacity to export parts to the US. Plus, the whole Tesla factory model is just in time manufacturing, no extra parts lying around if they can possibly avoid it, and they certainly dont want to be at the mercy of ships and international shipping times and prices.

Tesla Reportedly Looking To Change Giga Press Suppliers

The automaker is said to be in talks with Switzerland’s Bühler, according to an industry watcher from China.

insideevs.com

 

[standardparts]

The Italian Giga press being sent to China was ordered years ago. Tesla is now considering a Swiss press from Buhler for the next one.
The Chinese buy more cars every year than the US does, (in total, not specifically Tesla) so my guess is the Chinese factory wont have extra capacity to export parts to the US. Plus, the whole Tesla factory model is just in time manufacturing, no extra parts lying around if they can possibly avoid it, and they certainly dont want to be at the mercy of ships and international shipping times and prices.

Tesla Reportedly Looking To Change Giga Press Suppliers

The automaker is said to be in talks with Switzerland’s Bühler, according to an industry watcher from China.

insideevs.com

Incredible that one person can influence business and industry in so many areas.

 

[hanermo]

Every Tsla factory and model has made more cars for less money, with better features, for 14 years, exponential.
There is no reason to expect the trend to stop, although tires, chassis, and engine power are already at about their limits.

The manufacturing costs are likely to drop 10% y/y exponential, for the next few years, until a 2000 kg tsla costs about 12000 $ to make, marginal cost, aka 6$ / kg.
Add something for batteries, 500 kg, about 100$/kWh/90 kWh in 2022 == 5000$, declining to == 3000 $ by 2028.

Example:
The tsla inverter used to cost about 500$ in parts 5 years ago (version 13).
It might now cost about 300$ with si-x chips at 10x the colume.

Every tsla factory is made to marginalise the additional unit costs -- so that production can increase with lower marginal costs.

Of course, other manufacturers with money can also see this.
So, sooner or later, mostly later, other auto makers will get into the same game and will likewise get into making efficient EV cars.
The problem they face is huge debt around 100% of yearly turnover, in bonds, traded on the stock exchange.

And they cannot service the debt, if and when their turnover goes down, with cheaper EV cars, and needing to close down factories and lay off people.

Better EV cars will get cheaper -- soon.
This means that the old manufacturers either go out of business or find a way to drastically reduce their ppe, aka factories, and workforce, and debt.

At 1.2M units of expensive premium cars, in 2022, tsla is already an auto major.
And it is still growing at 40-50% per year, exponential.
2023 production is expected around 1.8M units.

The next increase of 50% to about 3M units is already foreseen, and factory capacity is getting done - most importantly the batteries.
The financial markets and tsla see them increasing production to 20M units/yr.
This is double toyota - the largest in the world - and with far higher margins currently, and probably in the future.

 

[john.k]

Toyota are happy to sell millions of HiLuxs and LandCruisers with diesel motors to those parts of Africa/ Asia Pacific where the green mantra counts for nothing..................supposedly an expose of the massive fraud involved in green/carbon credits from third world countries on the telly next week here......hardly surprising as the carbon credit industry in this country is mostly fraud ,deception and clever manipulation of the convoluted rules ........rules designed by lawyers to be full of hidden loopholes.

 

[Scottl]

There's a shocker. Electric motors draw a shit-ton more power under heavy load, and batteries don't last as long in cold weather. Nobody could have seen that coming. Nope.

I've been saying the same thing to all the guys who are impressed by the electric F150 and Silverado. Load that sucker up and then let's see how impressed you are. And even moreso in winter.

There are several Youtube videos addressing that issue as well as very short range when towing heavy loads.