hanermo
Titanium
- Joined
- Sep 28, 2009
- Location
- barcelona, spain
Fwiw ..
The Tesla Lesson is that EV cars need a big battery - 70-100 kWh.
The big battery is then short-cycled, meaning low draw, almost every day -- together with thermal conditioning thus leading to the battery lasting a long time, 10 years ++, with probably 70-80% capacity left after ten years of use.
IF the EV cars have strong/heavy transmissions like the teslas, aka able to take 700 Hp+ peak loads in very heavy 2000 kg cars, the drivetrains last nearly indefinitely.
Aka like all commercial trucks on the road, except just 1 speed, no gearing needed.
This is another Tesla Lesson.
Make the gear really strong - for the blistering EV acceleration of a heavy car.
A Big Battery EV car with a strong transmission will last a long time with minimal maintenance.
And it costs about 6x less to run than a diesel or gas car.
The new Hyundai is a good example.
42000$ - 52000 $.
It´s still a premium "lux" category car - but much less than a Tesla.
Tesla now in 2022 is likely to make about 1 M cars, +/-, and keeps expanding at 60% exponential rate every 12-14 months.
Demand far outstrips supply, one of the reasons they raised prices by about 10k per car.
They make huge margins, about 20% marginal, and as they keep expanding volume by large amounts their cogs keep dropping 1-2% y/y exponential, due to volume, automation, and acquired skills.
Tesla is the most profitable auto maker in the world, by far.
Tesla is about 1-2% of total auto volume globally, and likely to be 10% or == 6-8M within 5 years.
Similar to Toyota and VW (10M each) - from whom it takes away some of their most profitable premium sedan sales.
Within a few years Tesla, Huyndai, and similar will have a starter model around 30k with a Big Battery and decent powertrain.
The battery production capacity is the bottleneck, as I have said for 6 years.
Just like RAM, processors, HDDs were in their day.
Exponential growth of EV batteries will lead both to cheaper batteries and to better batteries and to cheaper good-and-proper EVs at starting prices around 30k.
Tesla has about 200 copy-cat competitors around the world - some of them well funded and or lead by ex-tesla engineers.
There is little doubt most will die off, a few may be acquired.
But it is likely that one or more will succeed.
Perhaps owned by Hyundai or VW or whomever.
The Tesla Lesson is that EV cars need a big battery - 70-100 kWh.
The big battery is then short-cycled, meaning low draw, almost every day -- together with thermal conditioning thus leading to the battery lasting a long time, 10 years ++, with probably 70-80% capacity left after ten years of use.
IF the EV cars have strong/heavy transmissions like the teslas, aka able to take 700 Hp+ peak loads in very heavy 2000 kg cars, the drivetrains last nearly indefinitely.
Aka like all commercial trucks on the road, except just 1 speed, no gearing needed.
This is another Tesla Lesson.
Make the gear really strong - for the blistering EV acceleration of a heavy car.
A Big Battery EV car with a strong transmission will last a long time with minimal maintenance.
And it costs about 6x less to run than a diesel or gas car.
The new Hyundai is a good example.
Hyundai IONIQ 6
Discover the Electrified Streamliner IONIQ 6, the new EV introduced by Hyundai. Cocoon-like cabin offers personalized and spacious interior space.
ioniq6.hyundai.com
It´s still a premium "lux" category car - but much less than a Tesla.
Tesla now in 2022 is likely to make about 1 M cars, +/-, and keeps expanding at 60% exponential rate every 12-14 months.
Demand far outstrips supply, one of the reasons they raised prices by about 10k per car.
They make huge margins, about 20% marginal, and as they keep expanding volume by large amounts their cogs keep dropping 1-2% y/y exponential, due to volume, automation, and acquired skills.
Tesla is the most profitable auto maker in the world, by far.
Tesla is about 1-2% of total auto volume globally, and likely to be 10% or == 6-8M within 5 years.
Similar to Toyota and VW (10M each) - from whom it takes away some of their most profitable premium sedan sales.
Within a few years Tesla, Huyndai, and similar will have a starter model around 30k with a Big Battery and decent powertrain.
The battery production capacity is the bottleneck, as I have said for 6 years.
Just like RAM, processors, HDDs were in their day.
Exponential growth of EV batteries will lead both to cheaper batteries and to better batteries and to cheaper good-and-proper EVs at starting prices around 30k.
Tesla has about 200 copy-cat competitors around the world - some of them well funded and or lead by ex-tesla engineers.
There is little doubt most will die off, a few may be acquired.
But it is likely that one or more will succeed.
Perhaps owned by Hyundai or VW or whomever.