What's new
What's new

What’s the longest you’ve ever been “slow”?

CMI94

Plastic
Joined
Apr 21, 2022
Our shop is showing signs of slowing down. We have a couple months worth of backlog but the new orders haven’t been coming in like they should be. I’m quoting a TON but not getting any PO’s. Ive reached out to old customers, etc and there’s not much in the pipeline right now. I’m not super worried… yet. Something just doesn’t feel right.
 
Aug '09 'till ... all the way through 2010 I s'pose.
I s'pose that we were down only 1/3-1/2, but that was the 1/3-1/2 that put food on the table!


------------------

I am Ox and I approve this post!
 
Usually slow a little in December, this year slow down started in October, and is still slow. Doing lots of quotes.

Interest rate hikes, high costs and our great leader Trudeau has put a carbon tax on top of all our already high taxes which adds costs to everything. Housing market is cooling off quickly and people got used to price increases and using their equity with the low rates and are now over extended with the higher rates on their credit lines.

Industrial/manufacturing Business areas of the lowermainland B.C. Canada that normally have no vacancy have tons of now vacant spaces. It’s getting ugly. Lots of long time businesses have pulled the plug.
 
Historically, February has always been slow for me. And short. And gloomy.

Not my favorite month.


Been low on snow up to now, but our spot in Colorado just got 5' over the last week.
Looks like first of February should be a super time to be alive!
Sun always shines in Colorado. Not gloomy.
(gets cold at night!)

See you there!


----------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 
Our shop is showing signs of slowing down. We have a couple months worth of backlog but the new orders haven’t been coming in like they should be. I’m quoting a TON but not getting any PO’s. Ive reached out to old customers, etc and there’s not much in the pipeline right now. I’m not super worried… yet. Something just doesn’t feel right.
Here in Michigan, GM launch delays are slowing many industries down. We put a big emphasis on diversifying away from automotive a few years ago so we're not impacted badly, but I know guys that are.
 
About 2 years for me. Sold the house and moved into an apartment. 2016 and 2017 I made about the same yearly income (supporting 2 kids and a wife) as I did in 2003/2004 when I was a single 21 year old. My dad loves to moan about those years but I had fun with all the time off, got into great shape and ran a 5k in right under 19 mins. I think 2024 is going to be on of those "adjust your lifestyle" kind of years.
 
About 2 years for me. Sold the house and moved into an apartment. 2016 and 2017 I made about the same yearly income (supporting 2 kids and a wife) as I did in 2003/2004 when I was a single 21 year old. My dad loves to moan about those years but I had fun with all the time off, got into great shape and ran a 5k in right under 19 mins. I think 2024 is going to be on of those "adjust your lifestyle" kind of years.
I appreciate this take on the slow times.
It sounds a lot healthier mentally and physically than sitting by the phone drinking cup after cup of coffee.
 
Been low on snow up to now, but our spot in Colorado just got 5' over the last week.
Looks like first of February should be a super time to be alive!
Sun always shines in Colorado. Not gloomy.
(gets cold at night!)

See you there!


----------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

It's so effing cold right now. 8°F and I'm out here in the shop with torpedo heaters blasting on me.

When spring comes; if I start a project thread about anything other than insulation, I want you guys to publicly flog me.
 
I think over all manufacturing is slowing, and not just a little bit. Sure there are guys still busy as beavers, myself being one of them, but the word on the street says the overall average of work is way down. I'm gettin' calls for overflow work from other shops in the area. Most are way bigger than my little operation. My material suppliers, both big and small, are all down right now. Lots of follow up emails and calls on RFQs. Truck drivers are all haulin' lighter loads. My heat treater, plater, grind shop are all slowing (I like the quick turnaround lately).

Not mfg related.....I live in a touristy area of the state.........big money resorts with big fancy restaurants, lots of little shops and smaller eateries all over, breweries, lot's of support services(lake home maintenance folk, snow removal, etc)...........winter is normally a slow time, but folks I know who are in that biz sector are screamin' for patrons......ghost town....places that only close down on a Monday in the winter are now only open Fri/Sat/Sun.......buddy that plays live music at breweries, resorts, restaurants, has gotten all of his dates canceled due to not enough payin customers at those venues.............folks all over are tightening their purse strings.
 
I appreciate this take on the slow times.
It sounds a lot healthier mentally and physically than sitting by the phone drinking cup after cup of coffee.
I remind myself daily that I am 1 of 8,000,000,000. The only thing I control in this world is how I choose to respond to this world, as it presents itself. The best thing I can do is to make sure I am mentally and physically prepared for what lay ahead, whatever that may be.
 
I am getting lots and lots of freight companies contacting me almost daily now looking for loads. I dont even ship any freight, but they all got my info.

Lots of places slowing down across the board. I planned for this since 2009 and am not worried at all, but I can tell others are extremely worried and panicked. I would hate to feel like that again.
 
In 2009 we had 2 years of work dry up and blow away. Signed contracts sent back marked "cancelled". I had to lay off 2 guys in the shop, and take a side job part time. That was pretty slow.
We were working for different State Governments and Transit agencies, if they said it was cancelled, it was cancelled.
We were slow for almost 2 years, and, really, it never came back to those levels. Infrastructure construction between 2000 and 2009 was huge.
I dont think what we are seeing now is comparable.
 
We have had no work Oct til now.:nutter:
But I watch economics, I knew ahead of time.:toetap:
So last year I benched 2 years worth of expenses encase this gets too bad, which it should,
instead of buying a new 5 axis :(

:D
 
I do keep getting work and my customers seem busy when I stop in, but I am really hesitant on buying any new equipment or buying material for the year for blanket orders. I just buy whats needed at the time of the job and bill it out at current rates.

I did just get a job for a screw that I cannot do on my machines and I am subbing it out to a swiss shop. The P.O. is enough $ to buy a swiss to run the whole job, which is exactly how I envisioned buying my next machine.

We worked out deliveries of about 10k per month, which gives me 3 or so months to get the cash together to buy a machine to run the rest of the job.

Then the guy I am subbing the job too has been thinking about upgrading machines to a 32mm size or maybe get a mill or 2 in house. He told me I should buy his 20mm machine and I told him that was kind of the plan and I am glad he brought it up.

It would suck to buy a machine with all the cash I have saved up and then go without work for another year. This way seems to give me a little more piece of mind and helps out everyone involved. We do share jobs between about 3-4 guys in the area depending on the type of part as we all have different capacity's.

I hear that one of the guys lost his 2 biggest customers this past year due to sudden retirements. No heads up at all, just gone a week later. A lot of guys are 35-45 years in this biz and are looking for an exit. They are all tired and ready to relax. Jobs will need to find new homes and my suggestion is to keep plugging away at it if you plan to continue with this trade and you will stay busy.

Good Luck to you all. Remember that I am proud of you! Pat yourselves on the back.
 








 
Back
Top