What in the magic smoke is goin on with Machinery Prices ?

[PacketNarc]

Inaugural post. But, I know how the forum protocol goes.

Intro: I'm BD, from Texas. Marine, Dad, Eccentric (not the mechanical variety)

Typical BS - Lurking here while tire-kicking / window shopping. Now that I'm, neck deep in parts and projects I figured I might go knuckle deep into the hornets nest and do an intro, and thank everyone who contributes to this fantastic resource. Just searching and scanning forums have picked up a lot of tribal knowledge and avoided wrong assumptions and mistakes. So, sincerely, thanks to all those who post for the value of others.


Ok, so now that my ounce of diplomacy is out of the way "What the heck is going on with the fluctuating machine pricing ?"

Is this the new "baseline" ?

I know how the game is being played, because I see the distributors and freight companies dealing with the perfect storm of issues getting product. But my gosh, machines that were $2500 15 months ago, are being sold retail for 4k or more. The pen-lathe style 7x10's are $1k in many places now.

I can understand markup due to shortages and freight / delays. But goodness. These things already had pretty decent reseller margins in qty. I can't imagine the situation has gotten so dire that this kind of markup is needed to preserve those existing profits ? I'm absolutely in favor of companies making some coin, so they can stay around and improve their products, support me, etc. But good lord. I haven't seen anything like it.


What is confusing is that inventory seems to have stabilized somewhat, as many of the "typical places one goes to buy these" show stock (if accurate) for most of the midline / mainstream models. Are that many of you doing so well turning out SS shift-knobs that you're buying up machines in bulk ?


Has something happened in the hobby machinists / fabricator world that drove this or is it really an elementary supply|demand issue ? Don't even get me started on C-List or the Bay, where anything made in or near PA or the Ohio Valley in the last hundred years is being sold for 5x what they usually go for.



Case in point: I'm red-hot to graduate to a better machine, but for something that was a $2,600 purchase a year ago, it's really hard to eat $4,100 - $4,300. I had ambitions of doing a big refresh and getting a few of those "things I'll never need but really want", but man; after spending the last month really objectively shopping I'm real discouraged.


In know these forums are usually chock full of newbies who are trying to get off the pot, as they say. Are y'all seein the same thing ? I'm curious if anyone has outright decided to just not invest due to the large upswell in pricing ? Or, are y'all just sacrificing for an inferior piece of kit ?

 

[GENERALDISARRAY]

I just bought a used Mori engine lathe. It was no higher than what I saw them advertised for 10+ years ago.

Maybe if you looked beyond the hobby-doody realm.

 

[Mtndew]

In know these forums are usually chock full of newbies who are trying to get off the pot,

Very well thought out and written post.


But,
This isn't the forum for you. This is not for hobbyists and talk of hobby machines will get the posts locked.

 

[dalmatiangirl61]

You are too late to the game, give it up, you will never be able to afford a real machine, but there is some hope, Walmart is hiring!

 

[mhajicek]

I just spent $120K on my first machine over the summer, and I got it just as the machine tool supply was beginning to contract. Prices have gone up significantly since then, and lead times have gone from weeks, to months, or even years.

Don't forget inflation; the money supply has nearly doubled in two years.

 

[DouglasJRizzo]

Supply and demand.

There are plenty of great values out there in "real machine" land. I see lots of 80s and 90s vintage CNCs from big name MTBs going for very reasonable prices. I just supplanted my shop with a gorgeous Okuma mill for chump change.

If you're looking in the $2k to $4k category, this isn't the place, tho.

 

[Pathogen]

Wait for the auctions as the machine shops go out of business.

Have cash in hand, know the machine really well you want to buy, a hundred grand machine will go for pennies on the dollar but you have to be ready to get it out of there before stuff gets stolen off of it. Bring help that you can trust to eye your buys and will defend the property.

In the meantime look for a generator big enough to run the machine, because 3 phase power costs will alarm you.

I would start with the West Coast places that have called for defund the police movements, great buys there

 

[Milland]

I just supplanted my shop

Supplemented?



[I'm such a jerk... ]

 

[memphisjed]

Supply demand- and more so people’s willingness to spend. The trade hobbies exploded with work from home. People who still are making a white collar check have time—at home. A lot look into hobby that pays (which as side note I feel cheapens the hobby experience).
You are no longer competing with Jane the mechanic wanting a lathe to make pool cues and pencils for dogs; you are price competing with joe the engineer (still pulling in full check) who is going to make that bushing they spend 12$ on at work. Supply is there, but tool supplier can now charge twice the price, and only have to deal with half the customers/inventory.

Commercial grade and prosumer upper end, price is relatively stable.

 

[DouglasJRizzo]

Supplemented?



[I'm such a jerk... ]

Close enough for government work....

Seriously, I had a Johnford I really didn't like, and sent it on its way when the Okuma came.

Supplanted. "Supplant - to supersede or replace." - Webster's.

 

[plastikdreams]

Supplemented?



[I'm such a jerk... ]

Suppositories? Sounds serious.

 

[DouglasJRizzo]

Suppositories? Sounds serious.

Not if you're trying to "keep it clean."

 

[CITIZEN F16]

Smaller type hobby machines in many instances can hold their value fairly well due to the fact they can be self rigged or rigged at low cost. Now with the high price of fuel and runaway inflation rigging costs are way up, which drives the price of small hobby machines up.

 

[boosted]

I would start with the West Coast places that have called for defund the police movements, great buys there

Really?? When COVID started, a lot of big aerospace shops out here went bust. I had no idea that was because they were defunding the police. I hate hipsters as much as anybody, but Seattle, LA, Portland, and SF are all booming. You must have wildly different bid spotter settings than I do.

 

[john.k]

cast iron from China been on a steep upward spiral cost wise for a couple of years now......various reasons for that.......and before you claim to wanna buy Murrican.....most casting come from China now,so no matter what you buy ,its Chinese iron in it.

 

[Billy_C]

We picked up our first machine around 2017 for under $5000. It was a 1998 Haas VF1. Honestly, that machine made a lot of fantastic parts. It was bare bones with the umbrella and 8K spindle. Everything was loosy goosy except the gearbox which would stick on cold mornings. I would take that over a brand new hobby grade machine any day, every day, and all day. I still miss that machine a little. Beat Haas TMs or VFs can be had for under $5000 still. Start looking for a real rig or I'm afraid your in the wrong place.

 

[ss_user]

I've never thought that the West Coast was a good place to buy used machinery. Not really enuf manufacturing to saturate the market. I did buy a Mazak V5 with a dead control out of NM for under $2K 20 years ago. Transportation, new servo amps, phase converter added 8K before it made chips. OK for prototypes or hobby use but I don't expect to print money with it. Used prices in parts of the US that have heavy manufacturering look better but transportation can eat more than your lunch. "There just ain't no free lunch".

 

[Antarctica]

I've never thought that the West Coast was a good place to buy used machinery. Not really enuf manufacturing to saturate the market.

You've got to be kidding me. Have you ever been to the east coast?

Whenever I've been on the west coast (SF, LA, Seattle) I can find damn near anything I want within a 20 minute drive. Right now I know of only two metal distributors in central maryland.

 

[GENERALDISARRAY]

isn't Maryland the size of Sacramento?

 

[Garwood]

Mainstream used stuff is up some. The fact is it really depends on what it is just like it always does. I think that tumultuous times like these bring lots of opportunities. I bought and sold a lot in 2021 and I can say with 100% certainty I bought a solid $100K+ in fair market value machinery and vehicles for less than $20k out of pocket. At the same time I sold numerous things for top dollar. I basically doubled my money, but kept some nice stuff for myself and the shop.

Mostly what I sold was small stuff that's prime size for home shops. What I kept was not hobby stuff.

I have been looking for a decent 1" blade bandsaw for my FIL so he can stop borrowing my portable one. I have been looking since 2020 and have only seen one that was under $1500 and it was a project/wreck. Pre-pandemic I would expect to see 3 or more at any time in Oregon or Washington in the $500-$750 range.

I don't believe there's any shortage of machinery in the NW. None whatsoever. There's a ton of hobby folk with money to pimp out their man caves and there's a million real shops of all sizes in the Northwest.