How is business for you right now? Busy or Slow?--GBI drops to 47.1

[red beard]

So, I saw today that the Gardner Business Index dropped to 47.1 (indicating a small amount of contraction in the industry) for November which is the lowest level since 2020.
https://www.gardnerintelligence.com/news/gardner-business-index---november-2022-471

How has business been for you guys?

I've been really busy all year, but the last four weeks or so I've received noticeably less RFQs and POs. It may just be a holiday slowdown. I've had that before. It usually picks up again in the second week in January. If it's still slow after that, I might call it a trend. I'm not too worried about it right now. I have plenty of projects that I've been holding off on waiting for work to slow down.

 

[DanASM]

Busier than ever. Cant find enough good help to get the back log down. I am just finishing up some blanket orders from last year and am now getting next years orders in. Buying larger amounts of material for the shelf before the end of the year.

A swiss shop I deal with in town just lost their lead machinist and their other programmer is on vacation. Now I am going to have them teach me how to program swiss machines, so I can quote and program jobs to put on their machines when I dont have the machine time in my shop.

It seems like people around here are working less due to wages not going as far as they used to. The workload is still there and prices are still elevated to pay everyone involved. I havent seen anyone go somewhere else cause the price is cheaper yet.

End of the year vacations are happening and orders are being placed now, but will slow down until mid Jan when the bosses get back to work.

 

[Booze Daily]

Best year in 9 yrs. Passed it by about 25%. Still have 5 month backlog that I could ship tomorrow if it was done.

 

[pgmrmike]

Still busy, oil related work. Up 24% this year over last year. Have fewer employees than last year, have a hard time finding good help, but been giving my good guys pay raises and they seem happy.

 

[david n]

Busy right into next spring here..................my gut tells me when it slows, it won't be gentle...............prolly more like hitting a brick wall.

 

[Ox]

This year has been "good".
Last year was a record year for us tho, so we are down to just "good" now. LOL!

I'm not seeing any signs of change here.


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[cnctoolcat]

Here at the Cathouse we primarily serve the underground mining, and have been busy along with the industry.

Most US underground mining is for metallurgical grade coal, as it sells for a premium. Although what's left of the US steam coal biz has been busy of late too, helping the US and Europe keep the lights on. Coal's share of our electricity production has jumped from the low 20-percent range to more than 30% now.

I see a consumer recession coming, and it could be a doozy. But commercial industries like energy, logistics, raw materials, green, etc., should do well regardless.

ToolCat

 

[ducesrwld]

record year for us we are heavy in the commercial / consumer side of things. like toolcat mentioned i'm not warm and fuzzy about what next year brings. i think after the holiday spending wears off january will show some sign of what is to come. covid really took the wind out of our sails and i think next year could do the same. prepping for a downturn....hoping for the best.

 

[david n]

I need a bit of a slow down....................you should see my Honey Do list.......................................

 

[john.k]

Things usually happen pretty fast when the economy goes bad......see reported Elgon Murk not paying rent on Twatter space and hasnt paid out any of promised severance packages.

 

[doug925]

We are about 40% higher than last year. (which isn't saying much, as last year was one of my worst in 26 years)
I trimmed some of the fat this year, unloaded some labor and overhead costs, so at least I can take a paycheck (actually owner draws, so no payroll taxes)

Our energy customers are doing well, and sending PO's our way almost daily. (yay!)
The water treatment side is banging as well.
Hopefully this won't change too much over the next year, as I need to fill the coffers to a level of comfort.

 

[BoxcarPete]

Humming right along in the commodity rubber business. Might sneak past 2021 to be our top year ever. Next year should be just fine, some industries are down (RV/Campers) and others cranking harder than ever (Heavy Truck).

 

[Ox]

You are producing rubber parts, or molds?


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[BoxcarPete]

You are producing rubber parts, or molds?


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

Neither, actually. Our company does contract manufacturing for all that, I run the engineering and test facility. My presence here is to keep up my capabilities for inspection and test fixturing, along with other, uh, highly important (to me at least) projects.

Prototype molding is a dream of mine and my brother-in-law though, so that'll be a "maybe someday" kind of thing. We have the space, but we want to get more firmly situated in the physical property/durability testing realm first.

 

[broke]

As busy as can be on mostly well paying projects. Out of space for machines but the spindle hours keeps going up.

I have quoted multiple projects in the past 3 months that have a good chance of happening. Those projects alone would double to triple our best year ever. I would need to kick out some tenants and convert current office/inspection space to shop floor again.

It's a great problem to have but I just want to be able to tuck my kids into bed at least once a week...

 

[jatt]

Cant complain.

Cooler weather for this time of year has slowed one part of business here. But not fussed cause it means have been able to focus more on the RV side of things.

Recon flooding a couple of months ago in the north of the state will help continue to keep that side of things busy- folk will need something to live in for some time, whilst they are cleaning up.

Crystal balling into 23. Not seeing much real competition on a local level in my main sources
of work.

Just got the usual issue of cramming in a life in between. Will continue to pick and choose what I take on.

 

[SND]

Things will be busy until they're not.

 

[2kjettaguy]

Absolutely dead and material pricing is insane. We make performance parts for VW/Audi vehicles. 75% retail 25% wholesale. I've raised prices as high as I can to try to makeup for material price increases. Sales are extremely weak. People don't need what we sell, they want it. At this point our customers are out of play money. My two largest wholesale accounts are the two largest retailers in my specific niche and their sales are so bad they are liquidating inventory disguised as holiday sales. International sales are impossible due to currency exchange rates.

I have been doing this for 20 years. I don't have the slightest idea how to get the work you guys do. I would love to be busy.

 

[cnctoolcat]

jettaguy,

The VW/Audi aftermarket may be "dead", but surely there are others you could apply your experience to?

The new Ford Bronco, Jeeps of about any sort, the new Toyota Tundra/Tacoma, ATV's, electrics...lots of enthusiasts out there with disposable income.

I would imagine not all "want" industries are slow...?

ToolCat

 

[Stirling]

Mediocre.
I expected a doubling this year.
Prepped for it by boosting inventory big time

Energy industry around me is waaay up, the specialty equipment with parts I make/stock for my customers are all out working like mad. My customers are slammed. But no repair requests. Very little parts requests.
Asked my core customers is our relationship is still good. Very positive responses (all long term customers)

It’s odd.
I’m assuming /hoping there is a lot of sacked equipment in the field that’s gonna come in with lots of repairs. Id place a 70-80% bet. But it’s un nerving

Now if there is a big crash incoming they may just let the equipment rot in a yard.
Hopefully energy keeps steam rolling.

Either way I got inventory on the shelf and I’m not broke.
I Will prep the machines for a quiet time and start pounding pavement hard in The new year. Anticipate a busily spring break up

Luckily I’m garage guy with paid equipment and little bills.

But I had sure hoped for a home run to repay my startup/covid losses almost went broke there.

Here’s to another busy years fellas!
Best wishes