It does appear that the "worst of the fighting" is soon over. The Ukraine government is embroiled in infighting.
This was posted elsewhere yesterday, and it sounds right to me:
"It seems the confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny has taken on new intrigues
Poroshenko tried to call Akhmetov to convince him to support Zaluzhny and to sue for negotiations
Zelensky is not having it, and has put elections on hold
In any case the military threatened that noone will touch Zaluzhny, or else face a coup
So both players are for now untouchable
Although for how long remains to be seen
The west wants to wrap this up with a Minsk-3, and so far Medvedev, Ryabkov, and others have stated there will be no ceasefires in 2024 including Vladislav Surkov, with his own essay detailing what will happen in 2024
Blackrock, Vanguard, Dupont are desperate to shore up their assets in Ukraine, they don't want to lose the billions sunk into this, and when they see Russia gaining the upper hand, they will remove whoever is in their way to get what they want, be it Zelensky , Zaluzhny, Yermak, and so on, if they can get a coalition of Tymoshenko, Kitschko, Poroshenko, Zaluzhny, and servant of the people aide Dymytro Razumkov, that will be the new government of the Americans
So the plan is obvious, the Americans will allow intrigues to develop, but will not allow Russia to win without their own plans put into action - which would involve sending Zaluzhny as a double agent, to negotiate a Minsk 3
Although noone in Russia wants this deal, if they cannot get advantages on the ground, then they will lose the war - post 2025, NATO will reach the desired production volumes of 155mm, and Ukraine already matches Russia for Drone volume, having enough to spare on individual servicemen as we see on endless Twitter videos, and they also look to reaching adequate volumes of HIMARS, Air defense, EW, and other important factors for Ukraine
So Russia has 2 years, 2024-2025 to win, or if Ukraine survives to 2026, it will be a defeat for Russia, with the only caveat, that if Ukraine take back all their territories, the land itself will be ruined and Ukraine remains a dead country
Although Moscow won't console itself with this detail, as this kind of loss will trigger events worse than Wagners uprising come 2026
IMO winning before then as Shoigu says in 2025, will require breaking Donbass and taking it, and then post Donbass, the Ukrainians are already digging in,
It means the choice that everyone has wanted to avoid since the beginning will be needed : the Gaza option
Unfortunately, if Russia cannot break Ukrainian defenses after the Donbass episode, they will have no choice but to bomb the cities into dust, and take the surface, as Israel does,
It is brutal, but it is the logical way to win , that is if you want to win
If not, well, take what chances you will!
But given what Russia has paid in blood and material, I don't see Moscow surviving if they do not provide a military-political solution to the "stalemate""